Bulls get back to business
- Market looks past shutdown, indexes hit new records
- Health care resuscitates, small caps climb, gold nears $3,900
- This week: Powell speech, consumer sentiment, “pre-earnings” season
The government may have shut down, but the market was definitely open for business last week.
Despite the cancellation of government-generated economic data—including the all-important monthly jobs report—US stocks bounced back from the previous week’s dip to set new records on each of the first three days of October. The S&P 500 (SPX) has now pushed to record levels five months in a row:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. Note: It is not possible to invest in an index.)
The headline: No data, no problem for stock market.
The fine print: The labor market numbers that were available last week—either because they were released before the shutdown or came from non-government sources—were mixed. Job cuts were down and job openings were up, but the ADP employment report showed a surprise drop in private-sector payrolls.
The move: Led by double-digit percentage gains in the pharma and life sciences tools & services groups, the S&P 500 health care sector burst out of an extended trading range, rallying nearly 7% last week and closing Friday at a six-month high.
The scorecard: The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap index led the market:
Source (data): Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Sector returns: The strongest S&P 500 sectors last week were health care (+6.8%), utilities (+2.4%), and tech (+2.3%). The weakest sectors were energy (-3.4%), communication services (-2.1%), and consumer discretionary (-0.8%).
Stock moves: Bakkt (BKKT) +42% to $25.55, and Merus (MRUS) +36% to $93.67, both on Monday. On the downside, Moonlake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) -90% to $6.25 on Monday, Enanta Pharmaceuticals (ENTA) -21% to $11.97 on Tuesday.
Yields and the dollar: The 10-year US Treasury yield declined 0.06% to 4.12%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.43 to 97.72.
Futures: Spot gold prices rallied to fresh record highs near $3,900 last week, and December gold futures (GCZ5) gained $99.90, closing Friday at $3,908.90. November WTI crude oil (CLX5) reversed the previous week’s rally, falling $5.19 to $60.53 and returning to its long-standing support zone. Biggest rallies: October bitcoin (BTCV5) +12.2%, October ether (ETHV5) +11.9%. Biggest declines: December cocoa (CCZ5) -10.4%, November WTI crude oil (CLX5) -7.5%.
Coming this week
Because of the government shutdown, only three regularly-scheduled economic releases—weekly mortgage data, consumer inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment—are expected this week. However, the Fed will release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting on Wednesday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other board members are scheduled to speak at community bank conferences. The rest of the week’s numbers (italicized below) will not be released unless the shutdown ends:
●Tuesday: trade balance, NY Fed consumer inflation expectations
●Wednesday: mortgage applications and rates, FOMC minutes
●Thursday: Jerome Powell speaks at the Community Bank Conference, weekly jobless claims, wholesale inventories
●Friday: Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary)
This week’s “pre-earnings season” earnings include:
●Monday: Blackrock (BLK), Constellation Brands (STZ)
●Tuesday: McCormick & Company (MKC), Richardson Electronics (RELL)
●Wednesday: Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), AZZ (AZZ)
●Thursday: Delta Air Lines (DAL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), PepsiCo (PEP)
Check the Active Trader Commentary each morning for an updated list of earnings announcements, IPOs, economic reports, and other market events.
Surprise—it’s almost earnings season
One thing that won’t change even if the government shutdown drags on: October will bring a new earnings season. Although a handful of companies will report their Q3 numbers this week, the new season officially kicks off next week with releases from big banks.
Morgan Stanley & Co. recently released a report detailing stocks poised to deliver earnings surprises. In addition to proving “Earnings Surprise Composite Scores,” the analysis also filters the results according to whether Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts rate a stock as Overweight vs. Underweight or Equal-weight.
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1 MorganStanley.com. Quant Driven Earnings Ideas – Stocks Poised for Earnings Surprises in October 2025. 10/3/25.