Post-Memorial Day trading patterns
- SPX historically net positive in short Memorial Day week
- Pattern less bullish since 1998, but still positive
- Net gains and losses evenly split since 2010
Technically, it may still be spring, but Memorial Day has long been the unofficial kickoff to summer. The shortened week after the holiday has also had a reputation for being a warmer-than-average stretch for US stocks since 1971, when Memorial Day became a fixed Federal holiday on the last Monday in May.
While the SPX had a positive return in 56% in all four-day periods from May 1971-May 2024 (with an average return of 0.14%), it had a positive return in 62% of the four-day periods following Memorial Day, with an average gain of 0.5%:1
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Overall, the shortened week’s bullish reputation owes a great deal to a streak from 1984-1995, when it posted net gains (many of which were larger than average) in 11 of 12 years, and the single loss was marginal (-0.03%, in 1993).
Declines have been more common since 1998—and, on average, larger. From 1971-1997 the SPX gained ground in the four days after Memorial Day in 18 of 27 years (67%), with an average return of 0.7%. But from 1998-2025, the SPX rallied during this period in just 16 of 28 years (57%), with average return of 0.4%. Also, the average four-day net decline grew from -1.2% from 1971-1997 to -1.7% from 1998-2025. Since 2010, the SPX has posted a negative return eight times and a positive return eight times.
Drilling down to the day-by-day price activity, from 1971-1997 the Tuesday after Memorial Day was the only day of the shortened week that closed down (16 times) more often than up (11 times), while Wednesday closed higher most often (18 times). Since 1998, Wednesday was the only day to close down more often than up (13 vs. 15 times), while Thursday closed higher most often (18 times).
Market Mover Update: NVIDIA’s (NVDA) soft trading before and after Wednesday’s earnings announcement is a “bit surprising”—and a potential opportunity, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who modestly raised their profit target for the AI chipmaker, noting its attractive valuation relative to peers.2
Holiday reminder: US stock exchanges will be closed Monday, May 25 for Memorial Day.
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1 All figures represent S&P 500 (SPX) daily closing prices, 1971-2025. Supporting document available upon request.
2 MorganStanley.com. NVIDIA earnings straight down the fairway. 5/21/26.