A material(s) issue
- AMRZ down Monday, but call volume 65 times avg.
- Shares pulled back 15% in September
- Gold approached $4,000 on Monday
After a relatively strong start to 2025, the materials sector cooled off a bit in the second half—especially last month, when it pulled back as the broad market posted one of its strongest Septembers in years.
One of the materials stocks that participated in that downturn was Amrize (AMRZ), which retreated nearly 15% after hitting a closing high of $55.63 last month:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
While this chart shows all but one day of the stock’s price history, AMRZ is not a recent IPO. The company is actually a spin-off of Switzerland-based global materials company Holcim, which has been in business for nearly two centuries. Amrize operates as an independent, North American materials company.
While the stock has bounced modestly off its late-September low, it traded quietly to the downside on Monday. But the story was much different in the options market—call volume was more than 65 times average by midday, driven by nearly 10,000 contracts in the November $60 calls.
Yesterday, those calls were out of the money (above the current stock price) by nearly $12. In other words, traders who bought these options on Monday and planned to hold them until expiration would need the stock to rally more than 24% over the next 34 trading days to realize a profit.
Note: Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts currently maintain an Overweight rating on AMRZ, which is expected to release earnings at the end of October.
Gold bugs still outrunning stock bulls: Gold prices started the week the way they’ve started (and ended) many others recently—by pushing to new highs.
On Monday, cash gold prices traded within $38 of $4,000 and closed above $3,900 for the first time. Since breaking out above its May-August highs in early September, December gold futures (GCZ5) have rallied nearly 11%:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Morgan Stanley & Co. strategists pointed out yesterday that “structural” (rather than transitory) higher inflation would make both gold and stocks key inflation hedges.1
While gold has already reached the price target Morgan Stanley & Co. gold analysts discussed last month, several of the catalysts that contributed to the move—including stubborn inflation, the likelihood of rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainty—are arguably still in place. But they also offered an important reminder: Precious metals prices can be volatile, regardless of underlying trends.2
Through Monday, gold had outgained the S&P 500 (SPX) roughly 51.5% to 14.5% for the year.
Today’s earnings include: McCormick & Company (MKC), Richardson Electronics (RELL).
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1 MorganStanley.com. Weekly Warm-Up: Are Valuations Justified. 10/6/25.
2 MorganStanley.com. Why Gold Still Holds Glitter in Markets. 9/10/25.