Fundamental story, earnings momentum
- UNH higher after this week’s earnings beat
- Stock up 11% in October after 10-week pullback
- Shares still more than 35% below 2024 high
Unlike other high-profile companies that pulled back relatively sharply this week after posting strong earnings, on Thursday UnitedHealth (UNH) found itself sitting on a 7%-plus gain three days after releasing its Q3 numbers.
Despite surrendering a large intraday rally on earnings day (Tuesday), the health care insurer rebounded smartly over the next two days even as the broad market continued to struggle. That left the stock up roughly 11% for the month:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
In the wake of its earnings announcement, Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts reiterated their Overweight rating and noted UNH’s “beat-and-raise” reinforced the company’s turnaround momentum.1
“Turnaround” doesn’t have anything to do with the stock bouncing back from the 16% correction from its July highs that, on October 1, left shares at their lowest level since May 5. The monthly chart below tells a much bigger story. After hitting an all-time high above $630 in November 2024, UNH tumbled more than 60% over the next eight months—more than 40% just in April-May 2025 when the company was buffeted by a series of setbacks, including an earnings miss (and cancellation of forward guidance), a CEO resignation, and reports of a Department of Justice investigation:
Source: Power E*TRADE Pro. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
As of Thursday, UNH had climbed more than 64% above its July 2025 close, although it was still far below its late-2024 high.
The stock’s recent performance—especially in the context of its past 65 earnings announcement—offers a different, short-term perspective on the “turnaround” narrative. As the first (daily) chart shows, UNH closed at its lowest level in nearly five months less than two weeks before Tuesday’s earnings announcement.
Since 2010, the stock was higher 20 trading days after earnings in 40 of 65 instances (61.5% of the time) with a median return of 1.2%. Of the 16 other times it also closed at a 20-day (or longer) low in the two weeks before earnings, it was higher 20 days after earnings in 12 cases (75% of the time) with a median return of 5.1%.2
Today’s numbers include (all times ET): Import and Export Prices (8:30 a.m.), Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (9:15 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Citizen’s Financial (CFG), M&T Bank (MTB), The Travelers Companies (TRV).
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1 MorganStanley.com. Turnaround Moving Full Steam Ahead. 10/14/26.
2 All figures reflect UnitedHealthcare (UNH) daily price data, 2010-2026. Supporting document available upon request.