Quantum leaps

Quantum computing stocks have had a roller coaster 2025, alternately surging on stories about the technology’s theoretical potential, then retreating amid questions regarding the ability to turn it into a reality in anything less than a (very) long time.

One of these stocks, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), jumped back into the spotlight on Monday with a 21% intraday rally that pushed shares to their highest level in more than a month, although they remained well below October’s record high around $45:

If Monday’s rally looks like a fairly significant move, that’s only because the stock’s more recent gains have compressed its past price swings. While the QBTS's September-October 2025 surge dominates this chart, it’s actually smaller on a percentage basis than the one that unfolded in late 2024 when shares rallied nearly 500% in a little more than a month (dashed rectange).

In fact, since it began trading in late 2020, QBTS has gained 15% or more in a single day 52 other times. For perspective, NVIDIA (NVDA)—the flagship stock of the bull market—managed the same feat only once in that period.

If we look at the subset of QBTS’s big up days that also marked the stock’s highest high in at least a month (as was the case yesterday), we find 28 other examples. Analyzing what the stock did after them  seems to suggest favorable odds for potential continued upside over the next month or so: QBTS had a median four-week return of 8.6%, and posted a net gain 15 of 28 times.

Fair enough, but if we remove the six examples of the pattern that occurred during the November-December 2024 surge, we find the median four-week return falls to -14.8%, with the stock gaining ground in only nine of the 22 cases.

The most important question about a move like yesterday’s may be less about the price action itself than it’s context. In other words, unless a trader considers the current environment to be similar to the one that was in place in late 2024—when the quantum computing story first broke and grabbed the imagination of investors—the idea that the stock will follow up on large up days the same way it did then may not necessarily hold water.

Metals Monday: Not that there was much of a chance that another S&P 500 (SPX) industry group would be able to challenge metals & mining for the year's hightest return, but the surge in precious metals prices on Monday probably made it even less of a horse race.

Gold and silver both jumped to record highs, while platinum topped $2,000 and hit its highest level since July 2008. The metals & mining group led the SPX for the day, and pushed its year-to-date return above 81%. Also, some lesser-known mining stocks featured prominently on LiveAction scans for heavy call options activity, including US Gold (USAU) and Hycroft Mining (HYMC).

So far, so Santa: Monday marked the second day of the what has historically been the US stock market’s most bullish period of December. The SPX has posted a net gain in the eight trading days following the 14th trading day of December (last Thurday) in 52 of the past 68 years, with an average return of 1.3%.

Today’s numbers include (all times ET): Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m.), GDP (8:30 a.m.), Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (9:15 a.m.), Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.), New Home Sales (10 a.m.).

Today’s earnings include: Limoneira (LMNR).

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