Gut check for tech?
- Stocks mixed amid reopening trade and tech volatility
- Health care sector leads, gold and oil swing
- This week: jobs report, NVDA earnings, retail earnings
Despite continued volatility, the US stock market inched back into the plus column last week, thanks in part to Monday’s rally in the wake of news that the government shutdown was ending, and partly by a last-minute rebound by the slumping tech sector.
Tech divergence was evident early in the week. While the S&P 500 (SPX) gained ground the first three days of the week, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) tech index began retreating after Monday’s rally. That weakness morphed into a full-blown tech rout on Thursday, and early follow-through selling on Friday. But the market bounced back—with tech leading the charge—and the SPX ended the week just a little above breakeven:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. Note: It is not possible to invest in an index.)
The headline: Shutdown ends, AI volatility continues.
The fine print: For the second week in a row, the market rebounded intraday on Friday after early losses. The SPX fell 1.4% early last Friday, but ended the day down just 0.05%. The NDX’s pivot was even bigger, with the tech gauge erasing a 1.8% decline to close up 0.06%.
The scorecard: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIND) led the market and was the only index to hit a new record high last week. The Russell 2000 (RUT) small-cap index lost the most ground:
Source (data): Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Sector returns: The strongest S&P 500 sectors last week were health care (+4.3%), energy (+2.6%), and materials (+1.1%). The weakest sectors were consumer discretionary (-2.6%), utilities (-0.9%), and industrials (-0.8%).
Stock moves: Cogent Biosciences (COGT) +119% to $32.46 on Monday, Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN) +209% to $27.43 on Thursday, Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) +105% to $217.71 on Friday. Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) -26% to $12.86 on Monday, Korro Bio (KRRO) -79% to $6.50 on Thursday.
Yields and the dollar: The 10-year US Treasury yield ended a congested week up 0.06% to 4.15%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.33 to 99.27.
Futures: December gold (GCZ5) ended a volatile week up $84.40 at $4,094.20. December WTI crude oil (CLZ5) bounced back from last Wednesday’s 4.5% sell-off to end the week up $0.34 at $60.09. Biggest rallies: March sugar (SBH6) +6.1%, January lithium (LHTF6) +5.2%. Biggest declines: March cocoa (CCH6) -11.2%, November ether (ETHX5) -9.1%.
This week's highlights
The retail portion of earnings season kicks into gear this week, but NVIDIA’s (NVDA) numbers may be even more closely watched than usual (if possible), given their potential to shape near-term sentiment around the AI trade. Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts expect the stock’s underperformance vs. its AI peers to reverse on the back of strong quarterly results.1 Companies reporting include:
●Monday: H World (HTHT), Trip.com (TCOM), XP (XP)
●Tuesday: Dycom (DY), Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), Powell Industries (POWL), Williams Sonoma (WSM)
●Wednesday: BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ), Deere (DE), Lowe's (LOW), NVIDIA (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX)
●Thursday: Gap (GAP), Intuit (INTU), Warner Music Group (WMG), Walmart (WMT)
●Friday: Buckle (BKE)
The recent addition of the delayed monthly jobs report (for September) made this week’s economic calendar much more interesting:
●Monday: construction spending, Empire State Manufacturing Index
●Tuesday: factory orders, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index
●Wednesday: housing starts and building permits, FOMC minutes
●Thursday: Employment Report, Philly Fed Business Conditions, existing home sales, Leading Economic Indicators Index
●Friday: S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, consumer sentiment (final)
Check the Active Trader Commentary each morning for an updated list of earnings announcements, IPOs, economic reports, and other market events.
When the market is in the red halfway through November
As noted here last week, the stock market’s traditional seasonality has been turned on its head the past several weeks. Historically weak (September) and volatile (October) months turned out to be solid victories for bulls, while traditional strength was nowhere to be found in the first week of November.
Despite last week’s rebound, as of Friday—the 10th trading day of November—the SPX was still in negative territory for the month. That’s not “typical” November behavior, since the SPX has been positive at this point in the month in 43 of the past 68 Novembers. In those cases, it almost always ended the month with a gain (40 times) and, more often than not, padded its return (27 times).2
The probabilities tilted the other way for the 25 times the index was in negative territory on the 10th trading day of November. In these cases, the SPX rebounded enough to end the month with a gain just 10 times, and it increased its loss by the end of the month 14 out of 25 times. Also, the index posted a net decline over the next five trading days 16 times.
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1 MorganStanley.com. Qtr should bring focus back to NVIDIA's market leadership. 11/14/25.
2 Reflects S&P 500 (SPX) daily closing prices, 1957-2025. Note: In all calculations, the “end of the month” (November) is defined as its 20th trading day—which, depending on the year, may be the second-to-last trading day of November, the last trading day of November, or the first trading day of December. Supporting document available upon request.