Bearish, bullish, or none of the above?

On Tuesday, Expand Energy (EXE) had some of the market’s heaviest relative put options volume—roughly 51 times average.

That probably made sense to most casual observers, considering EXE was down on the day, had fallen more than 4% over the past three days, and had hit its lowest level ($88.36) since October 2024:

The drop came close to a new all-time low for the stock in its current iteration, since EXE was formerly known as Chesapeake and changed its name to Expand Energy in October 2024 after merging with Southwestern Energy. The chart also plots July natural gas futures (NGN6)—which hit their lowest low since October 2024 in late April—to highlight the stock’s relatively close correlation (until the past couple of weeks) with its underlying commodity.

Roughly half of Tuesday’s put volume—around 35,200 contracts—occurred in the June $90 puts. That’s a significant position, but since the contract’s open interest (OI) was a little more than 36,000 contracts, yesterday’s trading could have been the result of a large trader getting out of an existing position. In fact, the option’s price chart shows two clusters of heavy trading in May that, in total, closely matched Tuesday’s volume:

The possibility that a trader was closing old put trades rather than opening new ones could be viewed as a less-bearish—or even bullish—development, since put holders would seem to have little incentive to get out of positions in a stock they expect to continue falling.

In this case, though, the fact that the options were going to expire in a little more than a week may have played a role. The traders who bought $90 puts in early May have seen their positions in the red as recently as June 5. As the stock sold off over the past three days, the puts jumped to their highest level since April. That may have seemed like an opportune time to sell, especially if the traders anticipated continued natural gas strength to be reflected in a rebound in the stock.

Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts, who point out that EXE is the largest natural gas producer in the US, describe the company as “well positioned to answer the call on the next growth cycle of gas supported by a diverse transportation portfolio and direct access to the Gulf Coast LNG corridor.”¹

But there’s one more layer to this onion: There was also a 35,200-contract trade in the September $80 put options yesterday:

If the put options volume that initially had a bearish tint got a bullish makeover from the idea that it was actually a trade liquidation, this presents a third possibility: a “rollover”—that is, closing out a position but re-establishing it in a later expiration month. In other words, instead of closing out a possibly  “bearish” put position, a large trader may have simply been extending that position’s lifespan, as well as lowering its strike price.

Checking today’s OI totals should help clarify whether EXE options traders were getting in the market, getting out of it, or adjusting their positions.

Market Mover Update: Insurance company Unum (UNM) had the market’s highest relative call options volume on Tuesday. With the stock trading roughly between $88-$89, 11,600 of the December $105 calls changed hands. The contract already had the highest open interest (9,700) of any UNM option. The stock, which is up more than 20% since the end of March, hit its third-straight record high on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts, which have an Equal-weight rating on UNM, note that while the company “appears to be keeping its primary risks at bay, the recent run in its stock has meant that reward from here may be limited according to our valuation.”²

Today’s numbers include: mortgage applications (7 a.m.), Consumer Price Index (8:30 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 a.m.).

Today’s earnings include: Oracle (ORCL), Oxford Industries (OXM).

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¹ MorganStanley.com. Risk Reward—Expand Energy (EXE). 6/9/26.
² MorganStanley.com. Risk Reward—Unum Group (UNM). 6/9/26.