Peddle to the metals

In late December, it’s very likely one of the major market stories of the year will be gold’s historic rally to $4,000 and beyond.

The 2025 gold rush continued on Thursday, with December gold futures (GCZ5) rallying more than 2% to $4,305.60—the market’s fourth record high in a row, and ninth of the past 10 days. So far this year, gold has rallied 66%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12.7% return by more than 50 percentage points.

The focus on gold, however, may be overshadowing a larger metals story. For example, in what is a familiar storyline to longtime metals traders, silver has actually outpaced gold—by a wide margin. As of Thursday, December silver futures (SIZ5) had outgained December gold by roughly 11 percentage points since mid-August, the most recent—and most explosive—leg of the rally:

For the year, spot silver is up 87%, more than 20 percentage points more than gold.

The story doesn’t stop there. Platinum is up 84% for the year, while copper is up a “modest” 24%. The following chart shows copper lagging gold since mid-August, but it was actually leading gold for the year before taking significant tariff-related hits in April and again in July:

While some observers may be inclined to think of these moves exclusively as a monolithic “metals” rally, it’s important to remember that, despite their overlaps, these are unique markets with distinct economic roles and supply-demand factors.

For example, in addition to being a key component of solar panels, silver is used in a wide range of electronic switches, circuit boards, and connectors. Platinum is best known for its use in catalytic convertors, but it’s also used in fuel cells, sensors, and various chemical processes. Gold has far fewer industrial applications, but has a unique role as a perceived safe-haven during periods of market uncertainty or stress.

In other words, no single “rising tide” will necessarily lift all boats in the metals space over time, or at the same pace—aside, perhaps, from any preference that may exist at a given time for investors to hold commodities and other real assets.

That said, Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts recently outlined a “supportive macro backdrop” for metals that includes continued US dollar weakness, future rate cuts, and low inventories.¹ But they saw the most potential upside for gold and uranium, while describing copper as “well supported.” While expecting silver and platinum to also benefit from these tailwinds, they also think these markets could lag gold after their recent outperformance. They see the potential for 15% upside in gold (from October 7 levels) by the third quarter of 2026.

Finally, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management offered another perspective on the gold rally: the possibility that it represents “digital asset substitution.” In a world where currency markets could potentially be transformed by digital assets/cryptocurrencies/stablecoins, one way select players could challenge the dollar’s “stranglehold” on global money movements may be to “improve collateralization of their fiat currencies and/or cryptocurrencies with gold.”²

Today’s earnings include: Bank Of New York Mellon (BK), CSX (CSX), FNB (FNB), KeyCorp (KEY), US Bancorp (USB).

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¹ MorganStanley.com. The Price Deck – 4Q25: Macro Tailwinds. 10/7/25.
² MorganStanley.com. The GIC Weekly: Greed and Fear? 10/13/25.