Stocks vs. commodities

If July doesn’t go down as a historic month for the copper market, it’s not for lack of trying.

Just a little more than three weeks after copper futures logged their biggest up day on record—hitting a record high in the process—the market logged its biggest down day.

Not surprisingly, both moves followed tariff announcements. The first was the 17.3% intraday rally on July 8 after President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on all copper imports. This week’s sell-off followed the announcement that although the tariff would go into effect on August 1 as planned, it would be less restrictive than originally proposed, applying only to finished and semi-finished copper products (e.g., pipe and wire) but not “raw” copper such as ore and scrap metal.¹

Copper prices plunged 20% after Wednesday’s news, falling well below its early-July levels:

On Thursday, the market followed through to the downside, extending its two-day loss to more than -22%. (Note: Copper futures’ regular-session trading ends at 1 p.m. ET. The chart shows copper closing slightly lower on Wednesday because the tariff news broke after 1 p.m., and the selling technically occurred in the market’s after-hours session.)

While some traders may argue copper's rally earlier this month was “overdone,” others may claim the same is true of this week’s sell-off. For example, this week’s lows are well below where the market was trading before the initial July 8 announcement, even though the tariffs, as implemented, represent a significant tightening of market conditions.

Meanwhile, two copper-mining stocks that sold off with copper on Wednesday, Southern Copper (SCCO) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX), posted strong gains on Thursday:

As the charts illustrate, stocks like SCCO and FCX often follow the lead of the commodities they deal in, at least in the broadest of strokes, but the relationship is not perfect. Companies are not commodities, and how they trade reflects a wide range of business and fundamental factors, as well as trends in the wider stock market. But in this case, some traders may have wondered on Thursday whether the tables had been turned, and copper-mining stocks were leading the copper market.

Today’s numbers include (all times ET): Employment Report (8:30 a.m.), PMI Manufacturing Final (9:45 a.m.), ISM Manufacturing Index (10 a.m.), construction spending (10 a.m.), consumer sentiment (10 a.m.).

Today’s earnings include: BP (BP), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Chevron (CVX), Kimberly Clark (KMB), Moderna (MRNA), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Exxon Mobil (XOM).

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¹ CNBC. Trump’s 50% copper tariff includes a major exemption. That won’t halt price rises. 7/31/25.