April stock market patterns
- April a positive month for SPX in 72% of past 68 years
- Intramonth pattern relatively consistent over time
- A little less likely to be positive after negative March
Seasonality is just one factor in the markets, and it typically takes a back seat to the front-and-center catalysts that are driving price action at any given time.
Nonetheless, bulls will likely be hoping the stock market displays “typical” behavior this month, since April has been one of the more bullish months for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past seven or so decades—positive in 49 of the past 68 years:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. Note: It is not possible to invest directly in an index.)
Over the past 34 years, April was positive for the SPX 26 times (76.5%), more often than any other month.1
April’s 1.2% median return since 1957 (1.3% since 1991) has been middle of the road—the sixth-highest of all months. Over the past three decades, the median positive April return was 2.9%, and the median negative return was -2.5%.
April’s relative consistency has also been evident in the market’s typical path throughout the month. The following chart show’s April’s intramonth profile (the median return from the last day of March to each trading day of April) for two periods, 1957-1990 (blue) and 1991-2024 (orange):
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. Note: It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Depending on the month, trading day 21 may be the last, or second-to-last trading day of April.)
Although the SPX’s early-April path was a bit choppier in the 1991-2024 period, the market tended to accumulate most of its gains in the middle two weeks of the month.
Finally, April was more likely to be a down month after a negative March than after a positive March—but still more likely than not to be positive. After the 23 other negative March returns since 1957, the SPX posted a positive return in April 16 times (69.6%). After the 45 positive March returns, April was an up month 33 times (73.3%).
Similarly, April was a positive month less often after negative first quarters than after positive ones. The SPX was positive in 17 of the 26 Aprils that followed first-quarter losses (65.4%), while it gained ground in 32 of the 42 Aprils that followed first-quarter gains (76.1%).
Market Mover Update: On Tuesday, Avis Budget (CAR) was trading a little higher than where it closed last Thursday after the White House announced its intention to put 25% tariffs on foreign vehicles (see “Auto stocks shift gears on tariffs”). Mining stocks Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) are both below last week’s tariff-driven breakout highs (see “Metals, miners, and momentum”).
Today’s numbers include (all times ET): vehicle sales (time undetermined), mortgage applications (7 a.m.), ADP Private Employment Report (8:15 a.m.), Factory Orders (10 a.m.), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Paychex (PAYX).
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1 All figures reflect S&P 500 (SPX) monthly closing prices, 1957-2024. Supporting document available upon request.