Friendlier skies in 2026?
- Airlines posted mixed results in 2025 despite late rally
- Companies remained optimistic about demand trends
- Materials sector rides latest surge in metals prices
Banks always get all the attention at the start of earnings season, but long-time traders know big airlines are usually right on the heels of the initial wave of bank numbers. In fact, one—Delta Airlines (DAL)—often releases its numbers before the major bank announcements:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
With this morning’s earnings release, DAL has provided an early look at what may be one of the more intriguing industries outside of tech this year.
While 2025 started out as a year of relatively high expectations for airlines, as late as mid-November it was a flat-to-lower disappointment until a late surge trimmed losses in some names and pushed others into positive territory for the year:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Last month, when Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts laid out their positive expectations for airlines in 2026, they conceded they had expressed a similar sentiment for 2025, which they described as a year that “promised so much yet delivered so little.” But they believe if airlines can have a “boring” 2026—that is, one without the rough travel winter, high-profile accidents, and tariffs shocks that disrupted last year—the group has the potential to demonstrate its earnings power and experience a “transformative” year. 1
Similarly, “4Q25 Preview: Searching for 2026 Clues” points out that, despite last year’s challenges, airlines maintained strong confidence in their industry’s underlying demand trends, and that lowered earnings expectations may work in their favor. That said, the analysts also think the earnings that are about to be released will likely paint a picture of a “write-off” Q4 capping a “write-off year.”
Market Mover Update: Financials were the weakest S&P 500 sector on Monday amid President Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates.
Gold and silver both jumped to fresh record highs on Monday, and copper came close. The materials sector is leading the S&P 500 so far this year, and its metals and mining group has driven the charge (+11%).
Planet Fitness (PLNT) fell 6% on Monday, with heavy call options volume in the same strikes that traded tens of thousands of contracts last Thursday (see “Options market flexes muscle”). Today’s open interest totals should indicate whether traders were adding to positions or getting out of them.
Today’s numbers include (all times ET): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6 a.m.), CPI (8:30 a.m.), New Home Sales (10 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Concentrix (CNXC), Delta Air Lines (DAL), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Reddit (RDDT).
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1 MorganStanley.com. 2026 Outlook: What Doesn’t Kill You Makes You Stronger. 12/8/25.
2 MorganStanley.com. 4Q25 Preview: Searching for 2026 Clues. 1/8/26.