Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 05/05/2025
US stocks rose as trade negotiations progressed. The US dollar rebounded, while gold declined. Treasury yields rose, as traders pared rate-cut expectations. Tech giants helped boost Q1 earnings, but GDP shrank by 0.3% due to import surges. Inflation exceeded targets, raising stagflation concerns. April jobs data beat forecasts, and manufacturing fell less than expected.
US stocks rise amid trade progress
- Investors were encouraged by news of progress in US trade negotiations, judging that peak economic and policy uncertainty may have passed. Strong earnings results from some major tech companies also helped buoy stocks during the week.
- The S&P 500 Index climbed 2.9% to 5687 last week, ending Friday up for a ninth day in a row, its longest winning streak since 2004. The large-cap US stock index has made back all of its losses since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement on April 2.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 3.4%. The small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index gained 3.2%.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), known as the stock market’s “fear gauge,” fell below 23, slightly above its long-run average around 20.
US dollar rebounds, gold declines
- After falling for four straight weeks, the US dollar gained against other global currencies, reaching a three-week high on Thursday.
- Meanwhile, gold suffered a second week of losses, as investors’ appetite for non-US “safe haven” assets diminished somewhat.
Yields rise as rate cut hopes wane
- The two- and 10-year US Treasury yields both increased about 7 basis points to 3.82% and 4.31%, respectively, last week.
- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate in the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week.
- Better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data last week dampened the market-implied probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the FOMC’s June meeting to 37%, from 62% previously.
Tech giants boost Q1 earnings growth
- Investors have welcomed corporate earnings results for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 thus far, having braced for softer full-year 2025 projections.
- With 72% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results, blended year-over-year earnings growth was pacing at 12.8%, up from 10.1% the prior week. (The blended estimate combines actual results with estimated results for companies that have yet to report.)
- Megacap technology stocks drove some of last week’s US equity gains, with Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Microsoft posting strong earnings and reporting upbeat capital spending guidance on artificial intelligence.
- Apple and Amazon lagged their peers, however, after reporting relatively underwhelming guidance, despite beating earnings forecasts, with both companies citing tariff-related uncertainty.
GDP shrinks amid import surge
- Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% on a seasonally- and inflation adjusted basis in Q1 2025, the weakest reading since 2022.
- Lower government expenditures and a surge in imports ahead of tariffs drove the decrease in GDP. (Imports are subtracted from the GDP calculation because they represent US spending on goods produced outside the US.) However, final private domestic demand held relatively steady.
Fed inflation gauge exceeds target
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the “core” personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 2.6% year over year in March, below February’s 3.0% rate.
- However, on a three-month basis, core PCE rose 3.5% annually in Q1, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The combination of negative GDP and elevated inflation in Q1 raised the specter of stagflation for some investors.
Jobs gains beat forecasts in April
- Nonfarm payrolls suggested ongoing resilience in the labor market. In April, the US economy posted payroll gains of 177,000, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 130,000, while the prior two months’ data were downwardly revised by 58,000.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, as expected.
- Average hourly earnings grew by 0.2% for the month and 3.8% year over-year in April, slightly below expectations, while average weekly hours and the labor force participation rate ticked ahead of expectations.
- However, continuing jobless claims jumped to the highest weekly level in more than three years.
Manufacturing gauge falls less than expected
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which gauges the health of US manufacturing, fell to 48.7 in April, from 49.0 in March, exceeding analysts’ expectations.
- The new orders, employment, and prices paid components were higher in April.
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 05/02/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Industrials and Communication Services were the strongest-performing sectors, while Health Care and Energy lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks underperformed large caps.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield increased 7 bps to 3.82% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 bps to 4.31%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
Non-farm payrolls suggested resilience in the labor market. April headline payrolls grew by 177,000, beating consensus forecasts of 130,000. Hourly earnings grew by 0.2% for the month, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, as expected.
The Week Ahead
Next week’s economic calendar includes the May FOMC meeting, the ISM services PMI survey and Q1 data on productivity and unit labor costs.
- ISM Services Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Ares Management Reports Earnings
- US Trade Balance at 8:30 AM ET
- Marriot Reports Earnings
- AMD Reports Earnings
- FOMC Meeting at 2:00 PM ET
- US Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM ET
- Walt Disney Reports Earnings
- Uber Reports Earnings
- US Nonfarm Productivity at 8:30 AM ET
- US Unit Labor Costs at 8:30 AM ET
- US Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations at 8:30 AM ET
- Coinbase Global Reports Earnings
- China CPI YoY at 9:30 PM ET
- China PPI YoY at 9:30 PM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.