Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 3/24/2025
US stocks edged higher, as the Fed held rates steady and sounded a dovish note on inflation. Retail sales came in below forecast. Concerns mounted around tariffs and the prospect of stagflation.
US equities: Stocks edge higher as volatility eases
- The S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% last week, closing at 5,668.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index edged up 0.3%.
- Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index outperformed, with a 0.6% gain for the week, despite being down 16% from its 2021 peak.
- Energy, the S&P 500’s leading sector year-to-date, led the gains, while Materials and Consumer Staples lagged the most.
- Retail trading remained active, adding more than $12 billion into US equities over the week.
- The VIX: Amid a lack of major tariff headlines, the Chicago Board Options Exchange CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell back below 20, despite ongoing concerns about an economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and questions about stretched tech valuations.
Fixed income: Treasury yield curve steepens
- The US Treasury yield curve steepened last week, with the two-year yield decreasing 4 basis points (bp) to 3.95%, while the 10-year yield rose 3 basis points (bp) to 4.25%.
Retail sales: Weaker data fans worries of spending slowdown
- Disappointing retail sales data added to concerns about a pullback in consumer spending.
- February headline retail sales rose a below-forecast 0.2% month-over-month, while January sales data were revised down to a 1.2% decline, the biggest drop since July 2021.
- Control-group sales, which exclude cars, gas, food services, and building materials and directly enter the calculation of GDP growth, rebounded on stronger e-commerce activity.
- Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, fell by the most in a year.
Monetary policy: Fed holds rates steady as stagflation fears rise
- At the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, as expected.
- Investors’ concerns about stagflation mounted as the Fed’s “dot plot” forecasts showed a lower 2025 GDP growth estimate of 1.7%, down from 2.1% previously, and a higher core inflation estimate of 2.7% this year, up from the previous projection of 2.5%.
- There was a dovish undertone to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. He suggested that inflationary pressures from tariffs could be “transitory” and downplayed as an outlier the latest University of Michigan data showing rising consumer inflation expectations.
- The Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, which falls as credit risk rises, declined for a fifth straight week, the longest such streak since October 2023.
Key economic data: Hard and soft readings diverge
- The trend of hard economic data outperforming soft data broadly continued. Control-group retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and existing home sales all surprised to the upside, while March National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) homebuilder sentiment data reached the lowest level in seven months, as respondents cited policy uncertainty and tariff-related costs.
Corporate earnings: Tariff, inflation concerns hit FedEx, Nike
- As earnings season comes to a close, FedEx and Nike became the latest examples of macroeconomic uncertainty, with both companies lowering guidance. Management cited tariff confusion, currency fluctuations, and inflation, among other headwinds.
- The latest quarter saw tariffs mentioned approximately 2,000 times on earnings calls and financial disclosures, up from about 600 in the prior quarter.
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 03/21/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Energy and Financials were the strongest-performing sectors, while Materials and Consumer Staples lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks outperformed large caps.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year US Treasury yield decreased 4 bps to 3.95% while the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.25% last week.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
Retail sales added to recent concerns over a pullback in consumer spending. February’s headline retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations, while January’s was revised down to a 1.2% decline, the biggest drop since July 2021. Control-group sales, an input to GDP, rebounded on stronger e-commerce activity. Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, fell by the most in a year.
The Week Ahead
The week ahead brings March purchasing manager index (PMI) readings, Conference Board consumer confidence, personal income and spending data, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data.
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 AM ET
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- S&P Global US Services PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- S&P Global US Composite PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- FHFA House Price Index at 9:00 AM ET
- New Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Dollar Tree, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Chewy, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Jefferies Financial Group, Inc. Reports Earnings
- GDP Price Index at 8:30 AM ET
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM ET
- Lululemon Athletica, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Personal Income and Spending at 8:30 AM ET
- Core and Headline PCE at 8:30 AM ET
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.