Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 3/16/2026
U.S. stocks fell on elevated geopolitical risk, credit concerns, and ongoing tech weakness in a volatile week. Treasury yields rose as Fed rate cuts in March and April were priced out. Oil surged, the dollar rose, and gold dipped. Consumer inflation was in line with forecasts, but the Fed’s preferred gauge ran hot. Jobs data stayed resilient.
U.S. equities fall as Iran war escalates
- U.S. stocks declined for a third straight week, despite generally solid economic data, as investors focused on the risk that conflict in the Middle East could drag on with no clear de-escalation path.
- Financial stocks weakened as credit worries appeared to broaden beyond isolated pockets, pressuring the Financials sector.
- Technology stayed under pressure, with the “Magnificent Seven” group trading lower for the week.
- The S&P 500 Index fell 1.6% for the week, ending Friday at 6,632.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 1.3% for the week.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 Index fell 1.8%.
- Stocks and U.S. Treasuries moved down together, meaning they were positively correlated during the week, a notable shift because bonds often rally when stocks sell off.
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—known as the stock market’s “fear gauge”—stayed elevated, hovering above 27 as of Friday afternoon, a signal of heightened near-term market stress.
Oil rises as inflation fears grow
- Brent crude oil surged, ending the week above $103 per barrel, which can feed into inflation expectations and pressure both consumers and businesses via higher fuel and shipping costs.
- The U.S. dollar strengthened, which can tighten financial conditions and weigh on dollar-sensitive assets.
- Gold fell to $5,019 per ounce, suggesting “safe-haven” demand did not increase as much as it sometimes does during geopolitical shocks.
- Bitcoin rose, ending the week just under $71,000, continuing its pattern of sharp moves.
Yields climb as rate cuts look less likely
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened to 55 basis points, meaning the gap between shorter- and longer-term yields narrowed—often interpreted as the market anticipating slower growth and/or restrictive policy for longer.
- Two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 16 basis points to 3.72% over the week as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 diminished and short positioning increased.
- Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose 14 basis points to 4.28%, with geopolitical conflict and higher energy costs adding upward pressure.
- By Friday afternoon, markets had largely priced out expectations for March and April Fed cuts, and fed funds futures implied about one 25-basis-point cut through 2026—a meaningful shift toward a “higher for longer” rates outlook.
Inflation data come in mostly as expected
- The February consumer price index (CPI) was in line with estimates, but investors viewed it as somewhat stale because the survey period did not capture more recent energy price spikes—important since energy can quickly change near-term inflation readings.
- Headline CPI rose 0.3% month over month, and the year-over-year rate held at 2.4%.
- Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.2% month over month, and the year-over-year rate held at 2.5%.
- Separately, the January core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% month over month, unchanged since December on that measure.
- However, the year-over-year PCE rate rose 3.1%, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since March 2024—a data point that can make the Fed more cautious about cutting rates.
Labor market data suggest resilience
- The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings at 6,946,000, above the 6,750,000 consensus estimate, while the layoff rate edged down to 1.0%—signals that employers were still looking for workers and not accelerating job cuts. This helped offset worries created by weaker February nonfarm payrolls.
- The hiring rate and quits rate were unchanged, consistent with a labor market that is stabilizing rather than rapidly weakening.
- Initial and continuing jobless claims were relatively steady last week.
Consumer sentiment holds up, but lags current events
- The March preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading had “better-than-feared” elements, but the survey largely occurred before the U.S.-Iran conflict began, meaning it likely does not fully reflect the latest shock to confidence and inflation expectations.
- The headline sentiment reading was 55.8, above consensus expectations.
- One-year inflation expectations were 3.4%, unchanged, while long-run inflation expectations dipped to 3.3%, a modest positive sign.
CRC# 5302799 (03/2026)
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 03/13/26.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Energy and Utilities were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors last week, while Industrials and Financials lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield increased 16 bps to 3.72% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 14 bps to 4.28%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
The February Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with estimates. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month over month, and the year-over-year rate held at 2.4%. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.2% month over month, and the year-over-year rate held at 2.5%.
The Week Ahead
Key U.S. releases in the week ahead include January factory orders, January new home sales, February industrial production, and February Producer Price Index (PPI). The main event is the March 17–18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where investors will look for confirmation of whether policymakers still see room to ease policy—or whether persistent inflation and energy-driven pressures keep policy restrictive.
- New York Fed Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM ET
- US industrial production at 9:15 AM ET
- NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 AM ET
- ADP Weekly Employment Change at 8:15 AM ET
- US PPI at 8:30 AM ET
- US core PPI at 8:30 AM ET
- US factory orders at 10:00 AM ET
- Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Earnings
- US initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- US continuing jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- US new home sales at 10:00 AM ET
- US wholesale trade sales at 10:00 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.