Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 3/31/2025
US stocks fell sharply amid concerns about new tariffs, inflation and slowing economic growth. Gold prices hit a record high. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in hotter than expected, and consumer sentiment deteriorated further.
US equities: Stocks tumble amid tariff fears
- The S&P 500 Index fell 1.5% last week, closing at 5,581 in its fifth weekly decline in the last six, putting it on track to end the quarter down 5%.
- The S&P 500’s 2% drop on Friday marked its second-worst daily performance of the year, as President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports reignited investor fears of higher consumer prices and slower economic growth ahead.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.4%. The Magnificent 7 mega-cap tech stocks, which weigh heavily in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, are on course for their worst first quarter in at least a decade.
- The small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index fell 1.6%.
- Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500, which allocates the same amount to each index constituent, fell just 0.7%, outperforming its traditional cap-weighted counterpart.
- Within the S&P 500, Consumer Staples and Energy were the strongest-performing sectors, while Communication Services and Information Technology lagged.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 21 after falling below 20 the prior week.
Gold hits record high amid turmoil
- Amid the equity market tumult, gold, widely considered a “safe haven” investment, reached another record high, on track for a nearly 18% quarterly gain, the most since 1986.
- Investors have added more than $12 billion to gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past two months, the most since 2020.
Key Fed inflation gauge rises more than expected
- Excluding food and energy prices, the “core” personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in February, ahead of analysts’ expectations and up from January readings of 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis report also showed that consumer spending rose a disappointing 0.4% month-over-month. Spending on services was lower for the first time in three years, including on dining out, as consumers show resistance to price increases.
Consumer moods continue to deteriorate
- The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for March fell to 57.0, the lowest since November 2022, in its third straight monthly decline.
- In the survey, consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 5.0%, from 4.9% previously, while their five-to-10-year inflation expectations reached a 32-year high of 4.1%, from 3.9% previously.
- Notably, two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since 2009.
- Additionally, the Conference Board’s reading of consumer confidence fell to 92.9 in March, the lowest since January 2021, from 98.3 the prior month.
- Consumers’ expectations of future conditions tumbled to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years and well below the 80 level often associated with recessions.
- The survey’s “labor market differential” slightly improved, however, as fewer respondents viewed jobs as hard to get.
Key economic data: Home sales show mixed results
- New home sales rose 1.8% month-over-month in February, below Wall Street consensus expectations, while pending home sales rose 2.0% month-over-month, up from a 4.6% decline the prior month.
- The final reading for fourth quarter (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.4% quarter-over-quarter, ahead of expectations, and 2.5% on an annualized basis, in line with expectations.
US fixed income: 2-year yield slips
- The two-year Treasury yield decreased 4 basis points to 3.91% last week, while the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.25%.
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Certificates of Deposit (CD)
Fixed rates. Annual Percentage Yield up to 4.15%1,2
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Bonds and CDs
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 03/28/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Consumer Staples and Energy were the strongest-performing sectors, while Communication Services and Information Technology lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks underperformed large caps.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield decreased 4 bps to 3.91% last week, while the 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.25%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
February core PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding analysts’ expectations. Consumer spending disappointed, rising just 0.4% month-over-month, with spending on services lower for the first time in three years, including on dining out, as consumers show resistance to price increases.
The Week Ahead
The week ahead brings Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) readings on manufacturing and service-sector activity, and nonfarm payrolls data.
- MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity at 10:30 AM ET
- Construction Spending MoM at 10:00 AM ET
- JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Manufacturing Employment at 10:00 AM ET
- Dallas Fed Services Activity at 10:30 AM ET
- ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM ET
- Levi Strauss & Co. Reports Earnings
- Trade Balance at 8:30 AM ET
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- ISM Services Index at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services Prices Paid at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services New Orders at 10:00 AM ET
- ISM Services Employment at 10:00 AM ET
- ConAgra Brands, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM ET
- Unemployment Rate at 8:30 AM ET
- Average Hourly Earnings at 8:30 AM ET
- Labor Force Participation Rate at 8:30 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.