Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 4/06/2026
U.S. stocks rallied and volatility ebbed last week amid investor hopes for an off-ramp in the Iran conflict. Treasury yields fell, and traders dialed back expectations for Fed rate cuts this year after a stronger-than-expected jobs report, with March payrolls beating estimates. Oil prices stayed high, gold ticked up, and the U.S. dollar steadied.
U.S. stocks rise on hopes for off-ramp in Iran
- U.S. stocks rose for the week as investors grew somewhat more hopeful about a near-term path to end the Ian conflict. Trading-position moves added support.
- Early in the week, President Trump said U.S. operations in Iran could end in two to three weeks, even if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, lifting investor risk appetite, though he later warned of escalating strikes on energy infrastructure.
- The S&P 500 Index gained 3.4% for the week, ending a five-week losing streak.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 4.4%.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 Index rose 3.3%.
- Recent equity gains also appeared driven by traders closing crowded trades—especially buying back “short” positions—rather than by clear improvement in the underlying business outlook.
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), known as the stock market’s fear gauge, fell meaningfully to 24, signaling markets were expecting less near-term turbulence.
Equities end quarter lower, despite weekly rebound
- Even with the weekly rise, U.S. stocks finished the first quarter of 2026 broadly lower, amid geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, expectations for tighter monetary policy, and worries about AI spending and private credit.
- After hitting record highs in January, the S&P 500 ended the first quarter down 4.6% year to date and 6.5% below its all-time high. March was a particularly weak month, with the index falling 5.1% in a broad selloff.
Oil stays elevated
- Brent crude remained elevated, ending the week around $109 per barrel.
- Gold rose slightly to $4,677 per ounce, indicating continued demand for a perceived “safe haven.”
- The U.S. dollar was broadly steady relative to other major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 100.
Treasury yields fall as rate-cut hopes dim
- U.S. Treasury prices rose while yields fell over the week: The two-year yield dropped 7 basis points to 3.84%, while the 10-year yield fell 9 basis points to 4.34%.
- After an upside surprise in jobs data Friday, market-based forecasts for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut fell to about 18% from around 30% earlier in the week.
- Morgan Stanley strategists believe the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut, but warn that any near-term cuts would likely reflect bad economic news, such as rising unemployment and tighter financial conditions, rather than inflation cooling.
Labor market looks resilient, but not booming
- March non-farm payrolls rose 178,000, much higher than Wall Street’s consensus estimate near 65,000. The strong print helped calm worries about February’s 133,000 decline in payrolls.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 4.26%, but that was largely due to lower labor-force participation (i.e., fewer people working or looking for work), not a hiring surge.
- Other labor indicators were mixed but stable:
- ADP private payrolls showed 62,000 jobs added in March.
- Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 202,000, and the four-week average declined, suggesting layoffs are not accelerating broadly.
- Job cuts reported by outplacement firm by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rose 25% month-over-month in March, notably in Technology, but were still lower year-over-year; hiring plans rebounded.
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data suggested a “no hire, no fire” environment: The hiring rate fell to 3.1% (the lowest since April 2020); layoffs ticked up but stayed contained; and the quits rate fell to 1.9%.
Factory growth continues as prices surge
- Manufacturing activity appeared to expand for a third straight month in March, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index at 52.7. (Above 50 signals expansion.)
- The main concern was inflation: The ISM prices component jumped to 78.3, the highest since 2022. Respondents linked higher prices to Iran-conflict-related costs and tariffs, raising the risk that goods inflation could re-accelerate.
Consumer confidence ticks up, but inflation anxiety rises
- The Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, from a revised 91.0 in February.
- The most important signals in the report: Expectations for future conditions weakened and 12-month inflation expectations jumped.
Retail spending stays firm in February
- Headline retail sales rose 0.6% in February, above expectations, likely boosted by larger tax refunds, following a 0.1% decline in January.
- Retail sales excluding autos and gas rose 0.4%, pointing to firmer “core” spending than the headline data alone might suggest.
CRC# 5364774 (04/2026)
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 04/03/26.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Communication Services and Real Estate were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors last week, while Energy and Consumer Discretionary lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield decreased 7 bps to 3.84% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 bps to 4.34%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
Manufacturing activity appeared to expand for a third straight month in March, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index at 52.7. (Above 50 signals expansion.) The main concern was inflation: The ISM prices component jumped to 78.3, the highest since 2022. Respondents linked higher prices to Iran-conflict-related costs and tariffs, raising the risk that goods inflation could re-accelerate.
The Week Ahead
The coming week brings data for the ISM services index (March), durable and capital goods orders (February), New York Fed one-year inflation expectations (March), personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation (February), consumer price index (CPI) inflation (March), and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (April).
- ISM Services Index at 10:00 AM ET
- US durable goods orders at 8:30 AM ET
- New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations at 11:00 AM ET
- MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00 AM ET
- Delta Air Lines, Inc. Reports Earnings
- Constellation Brands Inc Reports Earnings
- US personal income at 8:30 AM ET
- US personal spending at 8:30 AM ET
- US PCE at 8:30 AM ET
- US initial and continuing jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.