Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 2/2/2026
U.S. stocks started last week strong—briefly pushing the S&P 500 above 7,000 midweek after the Fed held rates steady—but ended mixed as tech weakness left the Nasdaq slightly down; small-caps were notably lower. Gold and silver plunged as the dollar strengthened. Producer price inflation stayed sticky, and consumer confidence readings fell sharply.
Stocks open week strong, finish mixed
- U.S. equities opened last week in a risk-on mood, with the S&P 500 briefly crossing 7,000 on Wednesday as the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady met the market’s expectations. Sentiment later turned more cautious on concerns about the durability of AI capex and a potential Fed chair transition, and late-week trading grew choppier as a sharp post-earnings drop in Microsoft weighed on tech.
- The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.3% for the week and 1.4% year to date, at 6,939.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2% for the week.
- The small-cap Russell 2000 Index declined 2.1%.
Fed pick triggers plunge in dollar, metals
- President Trump on Friday announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh is typically seen as favoring a smaller Fed balance sheet and a more hawkish lean.
- The nomination helped catalyze a reversal in the “debasement trade,” with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.8% on Friday.
- Gold fell 11.4% and silver plunged 31.4%, among the largest one-day declines in decades, as the stronger dollar weighed on precious metals.
Fed holds rates steady, strikes hawkish tone
- The Federal Reserve, as expected, held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting ending Jan. 28.
- Changes in the Fed’s statement were viewed as net hawkish, including removing language highlighting risks to unemployment and recasting economic growth as “solid” rather than “moderate.”
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference struck a balanced tone, saying the central bank is well-positioned with rates now within a “neutral” range (i.e., a level that should keep the labor market stable while allowing inflation to move toward 2%).
- Powell also noted continued upside surprises in the economy and reiterated the view that tariffs are a one-time price increase.
Rate volatility low as yield curve steepens
- The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index—a gauge of implied bond market volatility—stayed subdued, ending the week at 59.
- US Treasury yields steepened over the week. The two-year yield fell 7 basis points to 3.52%, while the 10-year yield rose 1 basis point to 4.24%.
- Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in March edged up to 17%, as of Friday afternoon. Expectations for total cuts through 2026 increased modestly, hovering around 2.1 as of Friday afternoon.
PPI data shows persistent price pressure
- December Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed moderate but persistent pricing pressure. The headline PPI was unchanged month-over-month, up 3.0% year-over-year, above Wall Street analysts’ estimates.
- Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core” PPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.3% year-over-year. Trade services and core goods were key drivers of the increase.
Consumer confidence falls sharply
- January Conference Board surveys showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, with respondents citing labor-market stagnation, geopolitical tensions, and elevated prices.
- The consumer confidence index fell to 84.5, below consensus estimates, down nearly 10 points from the prior month, and the lowest since May 2014.
- Concerns deepened across both current conditions and the outlook: The “present situation index” fell to the lowest in almost five years, while the future “expectations index” posted the weakest reading since April 2025.
- The labor market differential (i.e., the percentage of respondents saying “jobs are plentiful” minus the percentage saying “jobs are hard to get”) fell to the lowest level since February 2021.
Fourth-quarter earnings growth beats estimates
- Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2025 continued, putting the S&P 500 on track for a fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
- The blended earnings growth rate (combining actual and estimated earnings) rose to 11.5%, ahead of consensus expectations of 8.3%.
- Big tech stocks stayed in the spotlight, as investors questioned whether massive spending by the biggest cloud companies will translate into real profits—and whether AI will deliver measurable efficiency and productivity improvements.
- Some industrial companies highlighted a build-out in AI infrastructure. Consumer-facing sectors continued to point to resilient demand, including strong travel and leisure spending.
CRC# 5175477 (02/2026)
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 01/30/26.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Communication Services and Energy were the strongest-performing S&P 500 sectors last week, while Consumer Discretionary and Health Care lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield decreased 7 bps to 3.52% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased 1 bp to 4.24%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
January Conference Board surveys showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, with respondents citing labor-market stagnation, geopolitical tensions, and elevated prices. The consumer confidence index fell to 84.5, below consensus estimates, down nearly 10 points from the prior month, and the lowest since May 2014. Concerns deepened across both current conditions and the outlook.
The Week Ahead
The coming week includes Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and services reports, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, nonfarm payrolls, US unemployment and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Fourth-quarter earnings season continues, with mega-cap technology names remaining in focus.
- ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET
- Palantir Technologies Inc. Reports Earnings
- Walt Disney Company Reports Earnings
- US JOLTS Survey at 10:00 AM ET
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Reports Earnings
- ISM Services at 10:00 AM ET
- Alphabet Inc. Reports Earnings
- Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30 AM ET
- US initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- US continuing jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- Amazon.com, Inc. Reports Earnings
- US continuing jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- US nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 AM ET
- US average hourly earnings at 8:30 AM ET
- US unemployment rate at 8:30 AM ET
- U. of M. Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM ET
- US consumer credit at 15:00 AM ET
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.