Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 04/14/2025
U.S. stocks rallied on news of a 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs. However, with steeply higher tariffs still in effect for China, economic uncertainty persists, pressuring the US dollar and helping keep bond yields elevated. US inflation showed signs of cooling, but consumer sentiment and small business optimism continue to deteriorate.
US stocks rally on tariff pause
- U.S. stocks and other risky assets rallied on news of the White House’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, except those on China, helping ease investors’ fears and reinforcing their belief that the “Trump put” remains in play for now.
- After its worst weekly loss since 2020, the S&P 500 Index rebounded 5.7% to 5,636 in its best weekly performance since 2023.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 7.4%, while the small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%.
- Within the S&P 500, the Information Technology and Industrials sectors led the gains, while Real Estate and Energy lagged.
US dollar slumps vs other currencies
- Still, macroeconomic uncertainty persists. With steeply higher tariffs on China, the average US tariff rate will remain above 20%, the highest level in more than a century.
- These dynamics fueled a “sell America” narrative in financial markets, bringing the US dollar under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down 2.8%, its largest weekly drop since 2022.
Bond yields surge amid volatility
- Bond markets saw the worst volatility in years, with yields rising sharply.
- The 10-year Treasury yield leapt 50 basis points to 4.49%, its largest weekly increase since 2001. And the 30-year yield breached 5% in its biggest weekly rise since the 1980s.
- Inflation-adjusted, or “real,” yields also moved higher, with the 30-year nearing 3% for the first time since 2008.
Inflation cools, but consumer fears persist
- Inflation data offered investors some relief. The consumer price index (CPI) declined 0.1% month-over-month in March, the first decrease in nearly five years.
- The CPI decline was driven by falling prices for energy, used vehicles, airfares, and hotel stays, suggesting that consumers may be cutting back on discretionary spending.
- “Core” CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1% month-over-month, the smallest increase since January 2021, while the producer price index (PPI) fell 0.4%.
- Consumers’ inflation expectations remain elevated, however. The latest University of Michigan survey showed one-year inflation expectations jumping to 6.7%, from 5.0% previously, the highest since 1981. Five-to-10-year inflation expectations rose to 4.4%.
Consumer moods continue to dim
- Consumer sentiment declined for a fourth straight month in the University of Michigan survey – to 50.8 in April, the second lowest level on record, from 53.8 previously.
- Concerns about a trade war and labor market deterioration continue to weigh on consumers, with the share expecting higher unemployment in the year ahead rising for a fifth straight month to the highest level since 2009.
Small business optimism weakens
- The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism index fell by the most since 2022, to 97.4, just below the long-term average, amid concerns about business conditions and sales following tariff announcements.
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Cross-Asset Performance Table: Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 04/11/25.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Information Technology and Industrials were the strongest-performing sectors, while Real Estate and Energy lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell US Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks underperformed large caps.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to equities.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
US Fixed Income Valuation
The 10-year Treasury yield increased 50 bps to 4.49%, while the two-year Treasury yield rose 31 bps to 3.96%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
CPI declined 0.1% month-over-month in March, the first decrease in nearly five years, driven by falling prices for energy, used vehicles, airfares, and hotel stays, suggesting consumers may be cutting back on discretionary spending. Core CPI rose just 0.1%, the smallest increase since January 2021, while PPI fell 0.4%, further reinforcing disinflationary momentum.
The Week Ahead
The holiday-shortened week brings data on retail sales, housing starts, and building permits. Several large financial services firms report their latest quarterly earnings.
- NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations at 11:00 AM ET
- Goldman Sachs Group Reports Earnings
- Empire Manufacturing at 8:30 AM ET
- Import and Export Price Index at 8:30 AM ET
- Johnson & Johnson Reports Earnings
- Bank of America Corporation Reports Earnings
- Morgan Stanley Reports Earnings
- Citigroup Inc. Reports Earnings
- Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET
- Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET
- Capacity Utilization at 9:15 AM ET
- Housing Starts at 8:30 AM ET
- Building Permits at 8:30 AM ET
- Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET
- Philadelphia Fed Business outlook at 8:30 AM ET
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. Reports Earnings
- UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Reports Earnings
- Netflix, Inc. Reports Earnings
- American Express Company Reports Earnings
- HDFC Bank Limited Reports Earnings
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.