April stock market history
- April a positive month for SPX in 71% of past 69 years
- Market slipped in three of past four Aprils
- Up month slightly less likely after down March, Q1
As the past several weeks have shown, stock market seasonal tendencies take a back seat to developments on the ground. A question right now is whether the current two-day bounce, which unfolded amid optimism that the Iran war may end soon, signals the potential for other factors—including seasonals—to reemerge from the shadow of geopolitics and oil prices.
If that turns out to be the case, one could argue the market could get a boost from “typical” April performance. Although April has been a down month for the S&P 500 (SPX) in three of the past four years, it’s been one of the more consistently bullish months in the long term. Overall, it’s been positive 71% of the time since 1957 (49 of 69 years)—tied for first place with November and December in that department:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Also, the past four years notwithstanding, the past two decades have been particularly reliable, with the SPX posting a net gain in 16 of 20 years (80%).1
That said, April’s 1.2% median return since 1957 has been middle of the road—the fifth-highest of all months. The median positive April return was 2.9%, and the median negative return was -2.4%. And while April was an up month more often than any other since 1991 (26 times), its median negative return (-2.5%) was slightly larger than its median positive return (+2.3%) during this period. (April 2022’s -8.8% return was the month’s second-biggest decline of the past seven decades.)
Finally, while April was more likely to be a down month after negative March than a positive March, it was still more likely than not to be positive. After the 24 other negative March returns since 1957, the SPX posted a positive April return 16 times (66.7%). After the 45 positive March returns, April was an up month 33 times (73.3%).
Similarly, April was positive less often after negative first quarters than positive ones. The SPX was positive in 17 of the 27 Aprils that followed first-quarter losses (63%), while it gained ground in 32 of the 42 Aprils that followed first-quarter gains (76.1%).
Market Mover Update: President Trump’s Wednesday evening address signaling more military action in Iran sent crude oil price soaring and stock index futures tumbling in overnight trading, appearing to deal at least a temporary setback to the market’s attempted rebound.
Today’s numbers include (all times ET): vehicle sales, job cuts (7:30 a.m.), International Trade in Goods and Services (8:30 a.m.), weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Acuity (AYI).
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1 All figures reflect S&P 500 (SPX) monthly closing prices, 1957-2025. Supporting document available upon request.