Market Dashboard
New every Monday with last week’s recap and notes on the week ahead.
Last update: 11/02/2026
U.S. equities diverged last week as AI worries weighed on large-cap stocks while smaller stocks rose. The Fed held rates steady, but a flight to safety helped lift Treasury bonds and lower yields. Oil and the U.S. dollar climbed, while gold and Bitcoin retreated. Economic growth picked up in the third quarter. Inflation stayed high in September.
Stocks diverge as AI concerns deepen
- Large-cap U.S. stocks fell last week as investors grew more concerned about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Early optimism about large AI-related initial public offerings faded, with the S&P 500 Index on Friday recording its weakest day since June.
- The S&P 500 fell 0.6% for the week and 0.9% in October, ending 3.1% below its October 6 high.
- The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.0% for the week and 5.3% in October.
- In contrast, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index gained 1.3% for the week and 0.5% for the month.
- Several “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech companies fell sharply after reporting earnings. Results showed strong AI demand but more cautious expectations for capital spending.
- Market participation remained relatively broad. The equal-weighted S&P 500 gained 0.8% for the week, outperforming the market-capitalization-weighted index by nearly 140 basis points. It rose 4.9% in October.
Earnings growth exceeds expectations
- With 60% of S&P 500 companies reporting, blended earnings growth stands at 30.2%, above the preseason estimate of 29.6%.
- Among companies that have reported, 82% exceeded earnings-per-share expectations, according to FactSet. That result matches the one-year average and exceeds the five-year average, indicating that corporate earnings remain broadly resilient.
Treasury yields fall as demand rises
- U.S. Treasury securities gained as investors sought safer assets, outweighing pressure from higher oil prices and restrictive Federal Reserve commentary.
- The two-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.59%, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined 6 basis points to 4.93%.
- The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% during its October 27 and 28 meeting, as expected.
- The committee described economic activity as “strong,” replacing its earlier description of “solid.” Officials continued to view the labor market as stable and said more information was needed to determine the policy required to return inflation to 2%.
Oil gains while gold and Bitcoin fall
- Brent crude oil approached $118 per barrel, its highest level in six months, after reports raised concerns about renewed U.S. strikes on Iran.
- The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened modestly during the week.
- Gold fell 3.0% to below $4,000.
- Bitcoin declined 5.6% following a major hack at a large cryptocurrency exchange, highlighting the market’s continued security risks.
Economic growth accelerates further
- Third-quarter 2026 gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest pace in a year.
- Business investment and household demand supported growth, with AI-related capital spending an important contributor.
Inflation remains persistently elevated
- Headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.6% year over year and 0.5% month over month in September, the largest monthly increase since April.
- The “core” PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, matching expectations, and 3.1% from a year earlier.
- Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, potentially limiting its ability to lower interest rates.
Household spending begins to cool
- September personal spending rose 0.5%, down from the 0.9% gain in August but above income growth of 0.2%; inflation-adjusted spending was unchanged.
- Real disposable income fell 0.3%, and the saving rate dropped to 3.8%, its lowest since late 2022. Consumers relied partly on saving less to sustain spending, which may be difficult if income growth remains weak.
Business investment remains resilient
- September durable goods orders rose 1.8%, the strongest monthly increase in five months, led by aircraft and other business equipment.
- The increase indicates that businesses continued to invest despite elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.
Consumer confidence rebounds sharply
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October from 84.2, well above expectations, as views of current conditions, the economic outlook and the labor market improved.
- Inflation expectations eased as gasoline prices declined.
- Planned spending softened somewhat, suggesting improved confidence may not immediately translate into stronger purchases.
CRC# 6076810 (11/2026)
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Cross-Asset Performance Table
Returns and prices of the most popular indices and assets as of 10/30/26.
1) Annualized 3-year % return. 2) Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): OAS is a measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Equity risk premium is the excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P 500 Sector Performance
Health Care and Utilities were the strongest S&P 500 sectors last week, while Communication Services and Information Technology lagged.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Russell U.S. Equity Style Performance
Small-cap stocks outperformed large caps.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
U.S. Equity Valuation
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium
Bonds continue to appear attractive relative to stocks.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
The S&P 500 remains expensive relative to the rest of the world.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
U.S. Fixed Income Valuation
The two-year Treasury yield fell 8 bps to 4.59% last week, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined 6 bps to 4.93%.
†Interest Rate Volatility as measured by ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE); *Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are debt obligations that represent claims to the cash flows from pools of mortgage loans, most commonly on residential property. Mortgage loans are purchased from banks, mortgage companies, and other originators and then assembled into pools by a governmental, quasi-governmental, or private entity; **Options Adjusted Spread (OAS): A measurement of the spread of a fixed income security rate and the risk-free rate of return, which is adjusted to take into account an embedded option. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Latest Economic Data
Third-quarter 2026 gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest pace in a year. Business investment and household demand supported growth, with AI-related capital spending an important contributor.
The Week Ahead
Third-quarter 2026 earnings season will continue, with several AI-related companies scheduled to report. The coming week also includes October manufacturing and services reports from the Institute for Supply Management; the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October Employment Situation Summary; and the University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment survey.
- ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET
- U.S. construction spending at 10:00 AM ET
- Apple Inc. reports earnings
- Palantir Technologies Inc. reports earnings
- U.S. factory orders at 10:00 AM ET
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. reports earnings
- Shopify Inc. reports earnings
- Pfizer, Inc. reports earnings
- ADP Employment Change at 8:15 AM ET
- U.S. trade balance at 8:30 AM ET
- ISM Services Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Toyota Motor Corporation reports earnings
- Motor Corp Ltd Ord reports earnings
- QUALCOMM Incorporated reports earnings
- U.S. initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET
- U.S. continuing claims at 8:30 AM ET
- Sony Group Corporation reports earnings
- U.S. change in nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 AM ET
- U.S. unemployment rate at 8:30 AM ET
- U. of M. Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM ET
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reports earnings
Index benchmarks
Cross-Asset Performance
S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.
NASDAQ Composite: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.
MSCI Europe IMI: This index captures large, mid and small cap representation across 16 Developed Markets countries in Europe. With 1,372 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the Developed Markets countries of Europe.
MSCI Japan IMI: This index is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Japan market. With 1,134 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.
S&P 400 Index: This index provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment.
S&P 600 Index: This index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.
S&P 500 Growth: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest growth characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
S&P 500 Value: This index is a style-concentrated index designed to track the performance of stocks that exhibit the strongest value characteristics by using a style-attractiveness-weighting scheme.
Bloomberg Commodity Index: Made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
US Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the US dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the US.
MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index: sets the weights of each currency equal to the relevant country weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Bloomberg US Aggregate Index: The US Aggregate Index covers the dollar-denominated investment-grade fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS pass-through securities, asset-backed securities, and commercial mortgage-based securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specific sub-indices that are calculated and published on an ongoing basis. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as a percentage of the original investment. This index is rebalanced monthly by market capitalization.
Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index: This index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt.
S&P Sector Performance
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.
The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.
The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.
The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.
The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.
The S&P 500 Communications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.
The S&P 500 Real Estate Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the real estate sector.
US Equity Style Performance
Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.
Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.
Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.
Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.
Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.
Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.
P/E Relative to Rest of World
TOPIX: This free-floated-adjusted index tracks all domestic companies of the exchange’s First Section.
US Fixed Income Valuation
ICE BofAML Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE): A yield curve-weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on one-month treasury option.
An investment cannot be made directly in a market index.