AI bellwether enters key stretch
- NVDA up nearly 18% since March 30
- Earnings due out in less than two weeks
- Sharp contrast in pre- and post-earnings moves
Earnings season may seem to be winding down, but one high-profile company has yet to release its numbers—and it’s unlikely to slip through the cracks.
That would be AI chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA), which is scheduled to announce after the market closes on August 26—two weeks from yesterday. Given the stock’s recent history, it may be a good time to check in on its short-term performance before and after earnings.
Thanks to a roughly 16% burst off its late-July low, on Wednesday NVDA was trading at its highest level since early June, and not too far below its May all-time high. That represents a notable change of scenery for the stock, which in late March closed at its lowest level in more than eight months:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
NVIDIA also made news this week with its announcement of $500 billion of potential investment from six institutional partners for AI factories. While concerns about AI spending levels and “circular financing” among the industry’s leading companies have eased recently, they haven’t disappeared. However, Morgan Stanley & Co. analysts believe NVDA’s move to use mostly third-party capital to drive investment should “alleviate circularity concerns, propel sovereign and neocloud investment, and help to unlock annuity revenue streams.” While acknowledging this financing model is not without risk, the strategists still believe the positives significantly outweigh the negatives.1
The news, along with the recent earnings beats and rebounds in many high-profile AI-related stocks, may ramp up anticipation for NVDA’s upcoming earnings. While NVDA has been a focal point of many earnings seasons in recent years—and has made notable moves after some of its announcements—the following chart reveals something interesting about the way the stock has traded before and after releasing its numbers. For the 26 earnings announcements since 2020, NVDA has tended to have more net upside in the 10 trading days before earnings than the 10 trading days after it.2 In fact, the stock’s median net return for the 10 trading days after earnings was slightly negative, with the stock posting a loss 14 times and a gain 12 times:
Source: Power E*TRADE Pro. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
This simple chart masks some important details, though. First, the stock declined during this period only two times more than it rallied (14 vs. 12). Second, when it did climb, the gains were often significant: The average positive return was nearly 15% (the average loss was just -6%).
That said, the stock clearly outperformed in the 10-day period before earnings announcements. Its 4.4% median net return was anchored by positive returns in 19 of the 26 cases, with the first five days of the pre-earnings period (i.e., the one that began on Wednesday) being especially strong—NVDA posted a net gain 21 of 26 times, with a median return of 3.5%. The stock’s typical performance in the final five days before earnings was much less bullish—it posted a net gain in only 14 cases, with a 0.2% median return.
There are many unique factors that could lead to these tendencies either repeating or disappearing in the current earnings season. Nonetheless, while many traders and investors will be waiting another couple of weeks for NVDA’s numbers, others may be taking a closer look at the stock right now.
Today’s numbers include: PPI (8:30 a.m.), jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Applied Materials (AMAT), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), StoneCo (STNE), Tapestry (TPR).
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1 MorganStanley.com. NVDA $500bn investment mobilization is a positive; brings focus to rev sharing. 8/11/26.
2 All figures reflect NVIDIA (NVDA) daily closing prices, 2020-2026. Note: NVDA announces earnings after the closing bell. The 10-day pre-earnings return is the percentage difference between the stock’s closing price on the day it announces earnings and the closing price 10 days earlier. The 10-day post-earnings return is the percentage difference between the stock’s closing price on the day it announces earnings and the closing price 10 days later. Supporting document available upon request.