The stock market in October
- October historically volatile, but net bullish, for stocks
- Typical gain smaller after positive Septembers
- Silver, copper outpacing gold’s recent run
Many investors view this time of year with trepidation, mostly because the transition from September to October often comes with reminders about Black Monday and Black Friday—two infamous October stock market crashes.
In reality, October has been an up for US stocks more often than not, and—especially over the past 30 years—it has provided investors with better-than-average returns.
Since 1957, October has been a positive month for the S&P 500 (SPX) 41 times (61%, sixth-highest winning percentage), with a 1.4% median return (fourth strongest):
Source (data): Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. Note: It's not possible to invest directly in an index.)
Over the past 30 years, it became a more solidly bullish month. The SPX’s median October return since 1994 is 2.8%, which was the second-strongest of all months of the year. Also, as the chart shows, the median positive October return (+3.7%) has been much bigger than the median negative October return (-2.8%).1 Only two Octobers (2008 and 2018 )had losses in excess of 5% during this period.
That said, October has sometimes been volatile, even when the market posted a net gain for the month. Also, there has been a tendency for October returns to be a little weaker after positive Septembers. After the 28 up Septembers since 1957, the SPX’s median October return was 1.1%—well below its 1.9% median return following the 38 negative Septembers.
Market Mover Update: September has been a record-setting month for gold, but the following comparison charts shows both October copper (HGV4) and December silver (SIZ4) futures have outgained December gold (GCZ4) during the most recent upswing:
Source: Power E*TRADE. (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation.)
Light & Wonder (LNW) fell more than 2% intraday on Monday, hitting its lowest level since May 1 and closing just below last Tuesday’s close (see “Volatility not a game”).
Today’s numbers include: ISM Manufacturing Index (10 a.m.), S&P Global PMI Manufacturing (9:45 a.m.), Construction Spending (10 a.m.), JOLTS (10 a.m.).
Today’s earnings include: Acuity Brands (AYI), Lamb Weston (LW), McCormick & Co. (MKC), Paychex (PAYX), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), Nike (NKE).
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1 All figures reflect S&P 500 (SPX) monthly prices, 1957-2024. Supporting document available upon request.