November stock market patterns

10/31/24
  • November historically a strong month for stocks
  • Past three decades have been particularly bullish
  • Election-year Novembers more mixed

With an election and a Fed interest rate decision in its first full week, November promises to be an eventful month.

It usually is, in terms of the stock market. Historically, November has been one of the strongest months for US stocks, especially over the past three decades.1 Since 1994, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained ground in November 23 out of 30 times (76.7%, second-highest winning percentage of any month) with a median return of 2.8% (larger than any other month):

Chart 1: S&P 500 (SPX) November returns, 1957–2024. SPX up  47 of past 67 Novembers, and 12 of past 15.

Source: Power E*TRADE (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.)


November has, however, experienced the occasional large loss—the SPX has shed 4% or more in November seven times. But there have been only three negative Novembers in the past 15 years (just one in the past decade), and those losses have been among the smallest since 1957.

There’s also some evidence the market has been more bullish in recent years in terms of how the market has traded throughout November. The following chart shows the SPX’s intramonth return profile for November (the average returns from the last day of October to each trading day of November ) for two periods, 1957-1989 (blue line) and 1990-2023 (green line).2 It shows the SPX has tended to trade more consistently upward since 1990 compared to the previous period:

Chart 2: S&P 500 November intramonth profile, 1957-2024. More consistently bullish since 1990.

Source: Power E*TRADE (For illustrative purposes. Not a recommendation. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.)


Of course, this isn’t just any November, it’s an election-year November. In the 16 presidential election years since 1960, November was an up month 10 times (62.5%), which is less frequently than usual. But it’s worth noting the two most recent negative election-year Novembers occurred during large-scale crises—the 2008 financial collapse and the 2000 dot-com implosion, respectively. While the market always faces headwinds, and unexpected events can derail the market at any moment, there is nothing comparable currently unfolding in the economy or the markets.

That said, uncertainty about next week’s election—including delays in knowing the result—could weigh on market sentiment.

Market Mover Update: Amkor Technology (AMKR) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS) fell more than 4% and 5%, respectively, on Wednesday. Semiconductor-related stocks were weak across the board.

Today’s numbers include (all times ET): job cuts (7:30 a.m.), weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), Personal Income and Spending (8:30 a.m.), PCE Price Index (8:30 a.m.), Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30 a.m.).

Today’s earnings include: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Estee Lauder (EL), Mastercard (MA), Merck (MRK), Roblox (RBLX), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Uber (UBER), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Juniper Networks (JNPR), United States Steel (X).

 

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1 All figures reflect S&P 500 (SPX) monthly and daily prices, 1957-2024. Supporting document available upon request.
Note: Depending on the year, “trading day 21” may represent the first day of December rather than the last day of November. In 1963, when the market closed for an extra day after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, it represented the third trading day of December.

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