S&P 500 tests range

Halfway through February, the stock market is in a familiar position—right around all-time highs.

Last Thursday and Friday the S&P 500 (SPX) just missed topping its late-January records, despite some seemingly negative surprises on the inflation and consumer-spending fronts:

The headline: S&P 500 tests resistance at record levels.

The fine print: Stocks fell modestly after Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), but rallied after Thursday’s not-quite-as-hot Producer Price Index (PPI)—possibly because inflation in certain PPI components (e.g., health care, insurance) was lower than anticipated.¹ Some analysts think that may translate into a milder reading from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, later this month. Also, Friday’s drop in retail sales may have further eased inflation concerns. Regardless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that "we do not need to be in a hurry" to cut interest rates.

The number: 10, the number of weeks the S&P 500 has traded without rallying more than a half percent above its December 6 high.

The scorecard: The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) tech index led the market for a second week:

Sector returns: The strongest S&P 500 sectors last week were information technology (+3.8%), communication services (+2.2%), and materials (+1.9%). The weakest sectors were health care (-1.1%), financials (-0.1%), and industrials (+0.1%).

Stock movers: SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX) +34% to $54 on Monday, Lightbridge (LTBR) +35% to $14.60 on Wednesday. On the downside, Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) -41% to $20.87 on Tuesday, Spire Global (SPIR) -49% to $10.12 on Wednesday.

Yields: After jumping to a three-week high of 4.64% after last Wednesday’s CPI, the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.48% on Friday, down 0.01% for the week.

Futures: Gold pushed to fresh record highs, with April futures (GCJ5) closing Friday at $2,900.70, up $13.10 for the week. March WTI crude oil (CLH5) jumped more than $2 last Monday-Tuesday before pulling back to end the week down $0.26 at $70.74. Biggest gainers: March natural gas (NGH5) +12.6%, June Midwest US steel (HDGM5) +9.9%. Biggest decliners: May orange juice (OJK5) -19.7%, May oats (ZOK5) -4.5%.

This week’s numbers include:

●Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index
●Wednesday: housing starts and building permits, FOMC minutes
●Thursday: Philly Fed survey, Leading Economic Indicators Index
●Friday: S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs (flash), existing home sales, consumer sentiment

Another busy week of earnings includes some high-profile retail names:

●Monday: Huntsman (HUN), Otter Tail (OTTR), Transocean (RIG), Tennant (TNC)
●Tuesday: Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), Medtronic (MDT), Arista Networks (ANET), Celanese (CE), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Penumbra (PEN), Toll Brothers (TOL), XP (XP)
●Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), Fiverr (FVRR), Carvana (CVNA), Exact Sciences (EXAS), EQT (EQT)
●Thursday: Alibaba (BABA), Baxter (BAX), EPAM Systems (EPAM), LKQ (LKQ), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Repligen (RGEN), Wayfair (W), Walmart (WMT), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Dropbox (DBX), Newmont (NEM)
●Friday: Brady (BRC), U.S. Cellular (USM), Hawaiian Electric (HE)

Check the Active Trader Commentary each morning for an updated list of earnings announcements, IPOs, economic reports, and other market events.

So far this year, the stock market’s choppy progress jibes with Morgan Stanley & Co. strategists’ expectations for multiple months of consolidation.²

On December 6, 2024, the SPX reached an all-time intraday high of 6,099.97. Ten weeks later, the index has hit a couple more record highs, and come close a few other times, including last week.

If these milestones haven’t struck some investors as particularly significant, it’s probably because any gains over the past couple of months have been incremental—and repeatedly offset by downturns. In fact, the most the SPX has managed to push above its December 6 high is 0.46%, which makes this the first time since October 2023 the index has gone 10 weeks without trading at least 0.5% above a previous 26-week (or longer) high. The two times before that were in March 2022 and April 2020.

Meanwhile, the SPX hasn’t traded more than 5.4% below its December 6 high, which is another way of saying the index has been in a roughly two-and-half-month trading range—a fact that is immediately evident on its price chart. That makes the current situation a bit different from the three 2020-2023 episodes, which were all part of distinct pullbacks or corrections.

Finally, since 1957, the SPX has been in a position similar to the one it was in on Friday 22 other times.³ While it posted a net decline the following week in 12 cases, after four weeks it was higher 14 of 22 times.

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¹ MarketWatch.com. Key part of PPI report suggests Fed’s favorite inflation barometer won’t run as hot. 2/13/25.
² MorganStanley.com. Tariffs and Tech Challenge Stocks. 2/3/25.
³ All figures reflect S&P 500 (SPX) weekly prices, 1957-2024. Supporting document available upon request.