Deciphering bond market signals
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
10/20/22Summary: Recent action may indicate the bond market is coming to grips with the reality of higher interest rates and long-term inflation. What could it mean for investors?
Could September’s disappointing inflation report mark a turning point for markets?
The latest consumer price index (CPI) data came in higher than Wall Street forecasts, with the overall index up by 0.4% for the month and 8.2% higher than a year earlier. The “core” figure, which strips out the more volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.6% for the month and is up 6.6% for the year, the biggest year-over-year increase since 1982. This follows year-over-year rises in core prices of 6.3% in August and 5.9% in July.1
For the last few months, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee has consistently flagged the potential staying power of inflation, particularly due to the “stickiness” of higher wages and housing costs, as well as a resurgence in demand for services such as airfares and health care.
Yet many investors have been slow to embrace the reality of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve’s resolve to fight it with aggressive monetary tightening, instead hoping for policymakers to ease off on rate hikes and for inflation to quickly subside.
But the latest CPI report appears to have dented those hopes, based on the aggressive response across fixed-income markets immediately following its release:
- Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs—sending bond prices tumbling—with the key 2-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 10-year topping 4%.
- Market expectations rose for this cycle’s terminal rate, or the point at which the Fed will stop raising rates, to nearly 5.0%. Currently, the Federal funds rate is in a target range of 3%–3.25%.
These moves suggest the bond market is pricing in a “new normal” of higher interest rates and longer-run inflation.
What are the investment implications?
At current prices, short-duration Treasuries look attractive as they offer yields that are more than 2.5 times the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index1 thus providing investors with reliable income over the next year, when economic growth may slow.
As for stocks, however, the immediate path ahead is not as straightforward. Prices still need to adjust to reflect a more realistic earnings outlook. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes the strong demand and pricing power that companies have enjoyed in recent years, and the resulting record operating margins, are simply not sustainable. If earnings growth were to return to its long-run average, even without an economic recession, we could be seeing a 10%-15% decline from current estimates for 2023 earnings.1 Although some sectors have factored this in, mega-cap secular growth stocks are likely to still hold risk.
As the third-quarter earnings season begins, investors should pay attention to companies’ guidance for 2023, particularly to see if there’s an acknowledgement of the potential for a “profit recession” or negative year-over-year change in profit growth. Meanwhile, consider locking in solid yields in short-duration bonds and exploring dividend-paying stocks as we wait out equity-market volatility.
The source of this Morgan Stanley article, How Can Investors Prepare for the Bond Markets’ New Normal?, was originally published on October 18, 2022.
- Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee, "Bear Market Act II,” October 18, 2022
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