Market Dashboard

Last update: 11/12/2018

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10 YR. T-NOTE

Last week's featured headlines and data

Domestic

  • For the week ending November 9, the S&P 500® index rose 2.13% to 2,781.01; the S&P 500 TR Index rose 2.21%. The S&P 500 TR’s total return year to date, including price change plus dividends, was 5.74%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Total Return) rose 3%.
  • The US equity market rallied for the second consecutive week, with US election results generally meeting market expectations. Equities closed the week off their highs amid global economic concerns and lower oil prices.
  • The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain the fed funds target rate at 2.00%-2.25%. Most market participants are expecting a rate hike at the FOMC’s December meeting.
  • Democrats regained control of the US House of Representatives in last week’s midterm elections, flipping more than 30 seats. Republicans expanded control of the Senate by what is likely to be two seats once Senate races in Arizona and Florida are finalized. Democrats also flipped seven governorships, including Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Kansas. Turnout was high, with historic numbers of women both running for office and voting.
  • On Wednesday, President Trump forced Attorney General Jeff Sessions to resign after attacking Sessions repeatedly for recusing himself from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Matthew Whitaker, who has publicly questioned the Mueller probe, was named interim Attorney General. In response, Congressional Democrats have pledged to protect the Mueller investigation from a hostile White House.
  • Data released this week affirmed the FOMC’s assessment that the US economy is strong. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index continues to indicate robust expansion and data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reflect a tight labor market.

International

  • Sanctions on Iranian oil imports kicked in on Monday, although the US offered temporary reprieves to eight countries—meaning that they can access US markets even if they continue to import oil from Iran.
  • Speaking at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum in Singapore, Chinese officials expressed willingness to negotiate with the US on trade. At the same event, BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink warned that the Trump administration should not be picking fights with US creditors.
  • The European Union criticized Italy’s budget plan, which includes spending well in excess of what EU officials would like to see. Italian 10-year bond yields have risen in recent trading sessions.
  • UK Q3 gross domestic product grew at its strongest level in two years, despite some weakness in August and September. The country’s net trade deficit also fell.
  • Authorities in China signaled increased government oversight of the yuan by reversing course on an earlier pledge to allow market forces determine the exchange rate.

Fixed income

  • US government bond prices rose on economic concerns and falling oil prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ended the week at 3.19%.
  • Ford Motor Co. debt was at risk of falling to speculative grade as yields reached levels typical of high-yield companies. Investors are concerned that higher steel tariffs will raise costs and exacerbate Ford’s credit-rating problems.
  • A number of large bond deals were transacted in Asian markets, highlighted by a $1.5 billion offering from Baidu, a Chinese search engine.

Other news

  • Amazon.com appears to be adding not one, but two, new headquarters. The technology giant is said to be finalizing sites in Northern Virginia and in Long Island City, located across the East River from Manhattan in the New York City borough of Queens.
  • Twelve people were killed when a Marine veteran opened fire in a bar in Thousand Oaks, California.
  • A federal judge in Montana blocked construction of the Keystone Pipeline, saying that the Trump administration had failed to analyze how the project could affect climate change.
  • California wildfires have killed at least 31 people and forced tens of thousands more to evacuate. The so-called Camp Fire north of Sacramento, and the Woolsey Fire in Ventura County and Malibu, have destroyed more than 6,700 structures.
  • Q3 earnings highlights included TripAdvisor, which surged more than 15% on Thursday to its highest level in more than two years, Wynn Resorts, which tumbled 13%, and Scientific Games, which advanced 25% on Thursday alone.  
 
 

Trailing returns

Trailing index returns for week ending November 9, 2018

S&P 500 sector performance

S&P 500 sector performance for week ending November 9, 2018

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Russell Style Indexes

Russell Style Indexes for week ending November 9, 2018

Fixed income rates

Fixed income rates for week ending November 9, 2018

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The week ahead

  • Veterans Day is observed.
  • ­The UBS Global Technology Conference kicks off in San Francisco.
  • ­AXA Equitable and others post quarterly earnings results.
 
 
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is reported.
  • ­Redbook is released.
  • ­The European Commission’s deadline for the Italian government to submit an amended 2019 budget draft.
  • ­Advance Auto and others post quarterly earnings results.
  • The Consumer Price Index is reported.
  • ­Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan discuss national and global economic issues in Dallas.
  • ­MBA mortgage applications are reported.
  • ­Williams-Sonoma and others post quarterly earnings results.
 
 
 

 

  • The Census Bureau reports retail sales for October.
  • ­The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases is November Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
  • ­Import and export prices are reported.
  • ­Business inventories are reported.
  • ­The EIA Petroleum Status Report and Natural Gas Storage Report are released.
  • ­Jobless claims are reported.
  • ­NVIDIA and others post quarterly earnings results.
 
 
  • The Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for October.
  • ­Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans covers current economic conditions and monetary policy at the Fixed Income Forum Roundtable in Chicago.
  • ­The Baker Hughes Rig Count is reported.
  • ­Viacom and others post quarterly earnings results.

Index Benchmarks

Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.

BarCap Municipal TR USD: Listed for municipal-bond funds. This index serves as a benchmark for long-term, investment-grade, tax-exempt municipal bonds. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

BarCap US Agg Bond TR USD: Composed of the BarCap Government/Credit Index, the Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and the Asset-Backed Securities Index. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index: The U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. The index excludes emerging markets debt. The index was created in 1986, with index history backfilled to January 1, 1983. The U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index is part of the U.S. Universal and Global High-Yield Indexes.

Barclays Capital U.S. 7–10 Year Treasury: The index measures the performance of U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of at least seven years and less than 10 years.

Bloomberg Gold Subindex: Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Gold Subindex (DJUBSGC), the index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on Gold. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex: Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS WTI Crude Oil Subindex Total Return (DJUBCLTR), the index is a single commodity subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on crude oil. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD. 

Citigroup World Government Bond Index (Citigroup WGBI) is a market capitalization weighted index consisting of the government bond markets. Country eligibility is determined based on market capitalization and investability criteria. All issues have a remaining maturity of at least one year.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

DJ UBS Sub Crude Oil TR USD: Indexes in the DJ-UBSCIsm family are calculated on both an excess return and total return basis. The excess return indexes reflect the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only, whereas the total return indexes reflect the return on fully collateralized futures positions. 19 commodities are included in the DJ-UBSCIsm, representing the following commodity sectors: energy, precious metals, industrial metals, livestock, and agriculture.

DJ UBS Sub Gold TR USD: Indexes in the DJ-UBSCIsm family are calculated on both an excess return and total return basis. The excess return indexes reflect the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only, whereas the total return indexes reflect the return on fully collateralized futures positions. 19 commodities are included in the DJ-UBSCIsm, representing the following commodity sectors: energy, precious metals, industrial metals, livestock, and agriculture.

J.P.Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in the emerging markets, and is an expanded version of the JPMorgan EMBI+. As with the EMBI+, the EMBI Global includes U.S.dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans, and eurobonds with an outstanding face value of at least $500 million. It covers more of the eligible instruments than the EMBI+ by relaxing somewhat the strict EMBI+ limits on secondary market trading liquidity.

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.

MSCI EMF (Emerging Markets Free) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.

Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.

Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.

Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.

Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.

Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.

Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.

Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.

Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.

NASDAQ: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.

S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.

The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.

The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.

The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.

The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.

The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.

The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.

The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.

The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.

The S&P 500 Telecommunications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.

The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.