Market Dashboard

Last update: 7/16/2018

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10 YR. T-NOTE

Last week's featured headlines and data

Domestic

  • For the week ending July 13, the S&P 500® Index rose 1.50% to 2,801.31; the S&P 500 TR Index rose 1.55%. The S&P 500 TR’s total return year to date, including price change plus dividends, was 5.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Total Return) rose 2.32%.
  • US stocks advanced as earnings season began, then reversed course after the White House threatened $200 million more in tariffs on China, before rallying again. Annual US inflation was the highest in six years, at 2.9%, with prices eclipsing wage growth. US consumer credit rose 7.6% in June, the highest advance in six months.
  • President Trump selected 53-year-old Judge Brett Kavanaugh of the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit to fill the Supreme Court position vacated by retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy.
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave an upbeat assessment of the US economy but warned that high punitive tariffs could be harmful to economic growth.

 

International

  • President Trump arrived at the NATO summit and characterized Germany as “captive” to the Russians on energy. He also demanded that NATO member nations increase their contribution levels to the joint military alliance and said he would “do his own thing” if higher levels weren’t achieved by January.
  • During his visit to the UK, President Trump criticized Prime Minister Theresa May and praised pro-Brexit Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, who later resigned his post. During his visit, President Trump said May had “wrecked Brexit” and characterized Johnson as a potential prime minister.
  • The president’s high hopes for North Korean denuclearization were potentially derailed during talks led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Pyongyang. North Korea accused the US of “gangster-like” tactics and failed to attend a meeting scheduled to discuss the return of US military remains. Pompeo asserted that the US will continue to apply “maximum pressure” on North Korea.
  • The yuan rebounded after Chinese central bank officials vowed to stabilize it. The yuan has been Asia’s worst-performing currency over the past three weeks.

 

Fixed income

  • Bond prices rose on Friday in part over continued trade tensions. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished the week at 2.83%, down from 2.85% on Thursday, as the Labor Department reported lower-than-expected import prices in June. The report highlighted a 0.4% decrease in the cost of imported goods and a 0.3% increase in export prices.
  • Municipal bonds rebounded as US states and cities continue to reduce their borrowing. In the first two quarters, municipalities issued $156 billion in bonds—17% less than a year ago.
  • According to Citigroup, municipalities are predicted to borrow 25% less on a year-over-year basis by the end of the year. A decision by Congress to end tax exemptions on refinancings is credited for about half of the drop in the municipal market supply.
  • The flattening yield curve is extending globally. Indonesia, India, and Australia are the latest countries to see the gap between long- and short-term bond yields narrow over the last couple of months. 
 

Other news

  • The Department of Justice announced that it would appeal the decision approving the AT&T merger with Time Warner. The $81 billion deal recently closed, setting off a number of other large media transactions.
  • Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox Inc. increased its bid for Sky Plc, forcing Comcast Corp. to raise its bid to $34 billion as part of its effort to acquire Britain’s top pay-TV company.
  • Broadcom Inc. has splurged into a new realm of electronics with a planned $18.9 billion acquisition of corporate software maker, CA Technologies.

 

Trailing returns

Trailing index returns for week ending July 16, 2018

S&P 500 sector performance

S&P 500 sector performance for week ending July 16, 2018

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Russell Style Indexes

Russell Style Indexes for week ending July 16, 2018

Fixed income rates

Fixed income rates for week ending July 16, 2018

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The week ahead

  • ­­­­President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin begin their much-anticipated summit in Helsinki.
  • ­The New York Fed releases its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for July.
  • The Census Bureau releases June retail sales figures.
  • ­Business inventories are reported.
  • ­Prime Day, the biggest shopping event of the year at Amazon.com, begins at 3 p.m. Eastern.
  • ­The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook.
  • ­China releases second-quarter GDP, along with industrial production and retails sales data.
  • ­Bank of America and others post quarterly earnings results.
  • ­Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee.
  • ­US industrial production numbers are reported.
  • ­The National Association of Home Builders reports its July housing market index.
  • ­Redbook is released.
  • ­Johnson & Johnson and others report quarterly earnings results.

 

  • ­­­The Census Bureau reports June housing starts.
  • ­The Fed Beige Book is released.
  • ­MBA Mortgage Applications are reported.
  • ­The EIA Petroleum Status Report is released.
  • ­Morgan Stanley and others post quarterly earnings results.

 

  • ­­The Commerce Department begins two days of public hearings in its investigation to determine whether auto imports pose a national security threat.
  • ­The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index reported.
  • EIA Natural Gas Storage Report is released.
  • ­Leading indicators reported.
  • ­The Philadelphia Fed releases its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.
  • ­US jobless claims are reported.
  • Bank of New York Mellon and others post quarterly earnings results.
  • ­­­­­St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard gives a presentation on the US economy and monetary policy before the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce.
  • ­Standard & Poor’s reviews the credit ratings of both Russia and Greece.
  • ­Baker Hughes Rig Count reported.
  • General Electric and others post quarterly earnings results.

Index Benchmarks

Weekly and monthly style performance charts use Russell 1000, Russell Mid Cap, and Russell 2000 style indexes to represent large cap, mid cap, and small cap respectively.

BarCap Municipal TR USD: Listed for municipal-bond funds. This index serves as a benchmark for long-term, investment-grade, tax-exempt municipal bonds. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

BarCap US Agg Bond TR USD: Composed of the BarCap Government/Credit Index, the Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and the Asset-Backed Securities Index. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index: The U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. The index excludes emerging markets debt. The index was created in 1986, with index history backfilled to January 1, 1983. The U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index is part of the U.S. Universal and Global High-Yield Indexes.

Barclays Capital U.S. 7–10 Year Treasury: The index measures the performance of U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of at least seven years and less than 10 years.

Bloomberg Gold Subindex: Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS Gold Subindex (DJUBSGC), the index is a commodity group subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on Gold. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD.

Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex: Formerly known as Dow Jones-UBS WTI Crude Oil Subindex Total Return (DJUBCLTR), the index is a single commodity subindex of the Bloomberg CI composed of futures contracts on crude oil. It reflects the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only and is quoted in USD. 

Citigroup World Government Bond Index (Citigroup WGBI) is a market capitalization weighted index consisting of the government bond markets. Country eligibility is determined based on market capitalization and investability criteria. All issues have a remaining maturity of at least one year.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value—one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities.

DJ UBS Sub Crude Oil TR USD: Indexes in the DJ-UBSCIsm family are calculated on both an excess return and total return basis. The excess return indexes reflect the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only, whereas the total return indexes reflect the return on fully collateralized futures positions. 19 commodities are included in the DJ-UBSCIsm, representing the following commodity sectors: energy, precious metals, industrial metals, livestock, and agriculture.

DJ UBS Sub Gold TR USD: Indexes in the DJ-UBSCIsm family are calculated on both an excess return and total return basis. The excess return indexes reflect the return of underlying commodity futures price movements only, whereas the total return indexes reflect the return on fully collateralized futures positions. 19 commodities are included in the DJ-UBSCIsm, representing the following commodity sectors: energy, precious metals, industrial metals, livestock, and agriculture.

J.P.Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments in the emerging markets, and is an expanded version of the JPMorgan EMBI+. As with the EMBI+, the EMBI Global includes U.S.dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans, and eurobonds with an outstanding face value of at least $500 million. It covers more of the eligible instruments than the EMBI+ by relaxing somewhat the strict EMBI+ limits on secondary market trading liquidity.

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit the MSCI website.

MSCI EMF (Emerging Markets Free) Index: A free float-adjusted market-capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. For more information, visit the MSCI web site.

Russell 1000: Consists of the 1000 largest companies within the Russell 3000 index. Also known as the Market-Oriented Index, because it represents the group of stocks from which most active money managers choose. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends. Frank Russell Company reports its indexes as one-month total returns.

Russell 1000 Growth: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.

Russell 1000 Value: Market-capitalization weighted index of those firms in the Russell 1000 with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 includes the largest 1000 firms in the Russell 3000, which represents approximately 98% of the investable US equity market.

Russell 2000: Consists of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 7% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The returns we publish for the index are total returns, which include reinvestment of dividends.

Russell 2000 Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.

Russell 2000 Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell 2000 Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index includes the 2000 firms from the Russell 3000 Index with the smallest market capitalizations. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable US equity market.

Russell Midcap: Measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 25% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. As of the latest reconstitution, the average market capitalization was approximately $4.0 billion; the median market capitalization was approximately $2.9 billion. The largest company in the index had an approximate market capitalization of $12 billion.

Russell Midcap Growth: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.

Russell Midcap Value: Market-weighted total return index that measures the performance of companies within the Russell Midcap Index having lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell Midcap Index includes firms 201 through 1000, based on market capitalization, from the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 3000 Index represents 98% of the of the investable U.S. equity market.

NASDAQ: Measures the performance of all issues listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. Morningstar reports the NASDAQ Composite as a price return.

S&P 500: A market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market. It measures the movement of the largest issues. Standard and Poor's chooses the member companies for the 500 based on market size, liquidity and industry group representation. Included are the stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies. Since mid-1989, this composition has been more flexible and the number of issues in each sector has varied. The returns presented for the S&P 500 are total returns, including the reinvestment of dividends each month.

The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer discretionary sector.

The S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the consumer staples sector.

The S&P 500 Energy sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the energy sector.

The S&P 500 Financials sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the financial sector.

The S&P 500 Health Care sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the health care sector.

The S&P 500 Industrials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the industrials sector.

The S&P 500 Information Technology Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the information technology sector.

The S&P 500 Materials Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the materials sector.

The S&P 500 Telecommunications Services Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the telecommunications services sector.

The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the utilities sector.