Morgan Stanley's Mid-Year Outlook

The midyear outlook articles and Thoughts on the Market podcast deliver thoughtful analysis on the events that shape the market. All brought to you by a variety of voices with Morgan Stanley.

The content below explores Morgan Stanley Research outlooks on the markets and the economy for the the second half of 2023.

2023 Midyear Macroeconomic Outlook: Slower Global Growth with Bright Spots in Asia


In the face of high interest rates, global GDP growth is likely to slow to 2.9% this year and stay lackluster in 2024.

2023 Midyear Investment Outlook: Soft Landing, Hard Choices


Investors may want to consider high-quality long-duration bonds, equities in Japan and emerging markets, and mortgage-backed securities through the end of 2023.

Mid-Year U.S. Dollar Outlook: An Important Driver for Returns


This year, foreign exchange has been even harder than usual to predict. Even so, the outlook for the U.S. Dollar may prove to be a handy asset moving forward.

Mid-Year U.S. Economic Outlook: Will the Fed Continue to Hike?


As the U.S. Economy still angles for a soft landing, the recent Federal Open Markets Committee meeting may have left more questions than answers.

Mid-Year Macro Markets Outlook: Slow Growth and Sticky Inflation


While the U.S is moving towards a soft landing and Japan is seeing nominal growth, the European economy continues to face restrictive policy.

Asia’s Economy Outlook: Recovery Picking Up Steam


With more Asian economies on pace to join the recovery path set by China, confidence in economic outperformance versus the rest of the world is rising.

European Equities Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain


With the European economy losing momentum amidst a rally in growth stocks globally, the time of European equity outperformance may be in the past for now.

Mid-Year Strategy Outlook: Risk/Reward in Currency and Commodities


While the forecast for global bonds remains strong for the latter half of 2023, other asset classes could see bifurcated results across regions.

Mid-Year U.S. Consumer Outlook: Spending, Savings and Travel


Consumers in the U.S. are largely returning to pre-COVID spending levels, but new behaviors related to travel, credit availability and inflation have emerged.

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